The Great Urban Exodus
In 2021, large urban counties (those with over 250,000 people and a major city) experienced a net loss of 863,000 residents – the first time in 50 years that big urban counties as a whole shrank.2 Sixty-eight percent of large urban counties lost population that year, an “exceptionally high share by historical standards”.2
Where did those people go? Largely to the suburbs and beyond. According to the Economic Innovation Group, the majority of the fastest-growing U.S. counties in 2021 were suburban or exurban, and over 80% of exurban counties gained population that year.2 In other words, the communities on the outer edges of metro areas – once sleepy commuter towns – are now booming.
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Space and Affordability Drive Migration
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Government surveys and real estate market reports confirm the pattern. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) surveyed homebuyers and found the largest portion of city dwellers (41%) who moved chose suburbs, while another big share moved even farther out to small towns and rural areas.3
Meanwhile, 72% of those who already lived in suburbs stayed in a suburban area, simply shifting to a different suburb3 – indicating a strong preference for suburban living among movers.
“As big-city rents go up, that seems to be a significant motivation behind many pandemic moves: people hunting for more space at a price they can afford,” said Riordan Frost, a housing researcher at Harvard.1
Indeed, affordability and space were top of mind for many new suburbanites. Proximity to loved ones and the desire for more “home for their money” were primary drivers of this shift, with buyers citing the need for outdoor space, bigger square footage, and quiet neighborhoods as key factors in choosing a new home.3
Remote Work as a Catalyst
Multiple experts point to remote work as a critical enabler of the suburban surge. “For the first time, remote work allowed many people across the country to see a life in which the location of their job and where they live did not have to be one and the same,” observed Adam Ozimek, chief economist at Upwork.4
Untethered from daily commutes, white-collar workers suddenly could consider homes far outside the traditional 30-minute commute radius.
“With many more people in working ages now able to work from home at least some of the time, it’s likely that some people are more willing to live farther away from their place of employment than they would have in the past,” said Luke Rogers, a demographer with the Census Bureau.5
This new flexibility opened up options that were previously off-limits. Before 2020, over 80% of workers lived within 90 minutes of their workplace; by 2022, one in four remote movers said their new home is more than four hours away from their employer.4
As Rogers put it, high city housing costs combined with newfound remote-work flexibility “drove some people farther away from cities toward exurbs in search of cheaper homes”.5
Millennials Lead the Suburban Charge
Demographically, the great suburban migration has been led by millennials – the nation’s largest adult generation, now mostly in their late 20s to early 40s. Millennials were long known for revitalizing city centers in their youth, but that trend is reversing as they age into family life.
“This suburbanization trend has been slowly occurring since 2017, and we expect it to accelerate with the COVID-19 disruption,” John Kernan, an analyst with Cowen & Co., wrote in late 2020.6
He was right. By 2020, 48% of millennials reported living in the suburbs (up from 44% in 2019), according to Kernan’s survey research.6 The same was true for Gen Z young adults (ages 18–24): nearly half lived in suburbs, up sharply from a few years prior.6
Young Families Seek Space and Affordability
Housing market data underscores that young families were a major force in the pandemic-era suburban boom. Between 2020 and 2021, 54% of homebuyers aged 31 to 40 bought homes in a suburb or subdivision, according to the NAR, while only 15% bought in urban areas.7
Most of these buyers purchased single-family houses with yards (88% of purchases were detached homes).7
“When people are buying houses, they’re more likely to be going farther out because they’re trying to get something they can afford,” Harvard’s Riordan Frost explained, noting that many cities simply don’t have enough large, affordable homes for growing families.7
In fact, a recent Harvard study found that millennial moves to the suburbs were strongest in metro areas with the least affordable urban housing and few family-sized units – suggesting that many didn’t want to leave the city but felt they had to once kids and mortgages entered the picture.4
“Millennials are leaving places that do not offer affordable and/or right-sized housing as they reach traditional milestones like forming a new household, having children, or becoming homeowners,” the study concluded.4
Older Americans Join the Suburban Revival
It’s not only thirtysomething families fleeing the city. Some older Americans have also embraced suburban life anew, especially in the Sun Belt. Despite Boomers flocking back to cities, many are since the pandemic, have relocated to the burbs to be nearer to family or to get more space for multi-generational living.
“We’ve also seen more families buy multi-generational homes,” said Matt Christopherson, NAR’s director of research, noting a rise in buyers seeking homes with in-law suites or extra bedrooms. “Moving to the suburbs allows you to have that extra bedroom for an aging relative or a child over 18”.3
For aging baby boomers, many of whom spent decades in suburbia already, the goal isn’t necessarily to move to the city but to find a suburban setting that better suits their next phase.
“They’re not necessarily moving into the city. Most of them want to stay in the same community where they raised their kids, but they want a more urban lifestyle,” said Ellen Dunham-Jones, a Georgia Tech urban planning professor who studies suburban design.8
In other words, Grandma and Grandpa might be sticking around in the suburbs – but they’d like a nice café or bookstore they can walk to these days.
Sun Belt Dominates Migration Patterns
Geographically, the renewed flight to suburbia has played out most dramatically in the Sun Belt and fast-growing southern and western metros. States like Florida, Texas, and North Carolina led the nation in net migration gains during the pandemic,3 drawing newcomers with their relatively affordable housing and open space.
“Sunbelt states have been the bigger winners of movers and migration,” said NAR researcher Matt Christopherson, citing not only cheaper homes but “strong job markets providing longer-term opportunities” in those regions.3
Census figures bear this out: Florida saw a net influx of 221,000 domestic migrants from 2020 to 2021, the highest of any state, followed by Texas and North Carolina.5 In contrast, high-cost states like California and New York each lost over 300,000 people net to domestic out-migration in that period.5
The “Donut Effect” Transforms Metro Areas
But even within booming states, it’s the suburban and exurban fringes of major metros that are exploding. Take California as an example: while the state overall lost residents, the Inland Empire region east of Los Angeles (Riverside and San Bernardino counties) saw a net inflow of about 39,000 people between 2020 and 2021.5
Those are families and workers leaving the expensive LA and Orange County areas for bigger lots and cheaper mortgages an hour or two inland. A similar pattern emerged around other cities.
In Texas, the core counties containing Dallas and Houston had a combined net outflow of 89,000 people in 2020–2021, even as suburban counties on the periphery of those metros gained population.5 Metro Orlando and Miami-Dade County in Florida lost a combined 61,000 residents to domestic moves, even while Florida’s suburbs and smaller cities grew.5
It’s the “donut effect” in action: many downtowns hollowed out while the outer rings (suburbs and exurbs) plumped up.
“We kind of thought that they would be going to more urbanized suburban areas… but we found that they were primarily going out to these farther-flung, more peripheral suburban areas,” said Harvard’s Riordan Frost, whose team studied millennial moving patterns.7
Notable Regional Shifts
Some metropolitan areas have seen especially notable shifts. New York City’s suburbs in Long Island, New Jersey and Connecticut saw a flood of new residents in 2020–2021 as Manhattan and Brooklyn emptied out (New York City’s population fell by over 300,000 in 2021 alone).5
The Washington, D.C. region saw growth in far suburbs like Loudoun County, VA, even as the District proper and inner suburbs stalled.
Mid-sized Sun Belt cities like Nashville, Charlotte, and Phoenix have been inundated by newcomers heading straight to suburban neighborhoods on arrival.5
“Americans migrated in massive numbers to large Sun Belt metro areas and fast-growing suburban cities between 2021 and 2022,” stated a recent report from the Bush Center, noting that many of the nation’s fastest-growing cities are essentially big suburbs of larger metro hubs.9
Even some traditionally slow-growing regions are seeing a suburban revival: around Chicago, for instance, suburban counties like Kendall and Will have countered the population losses of the city in the past two years, and Boston’s exurban towns have grown even as Boston proper saw only modest gains.5
The Realities of Suburban Living
For individuals and families who’ve made the leap, life in the suburbs can be a mixed blessing. There are clear upsides: more space, often better schools, peace and quiet, and (for homeowners) the chance to build equity.
“On paper, they’re living the homeownership dream,” said Alex Gatien, 38, a city planner who moved from a dense city to a small suburban city during the pandemic.7
But Gatien also discovered some of the trade-offs that come with America’s car-centric suburban lifestyle.
“People live in a much more private realm,” he told Insider. “Everyone drives everywhere, which means you don’t really run into people. They don’t really use public spaces like parks unless they don’t have their own outdoor space – which everyone does unless they’re poor”.7
In suburbs designed for driving, newcomers can sometimes feel the lack of street life or serendipitous community interactions that city dwellers take for granted.
Second Thoughts and Return Migrations
Some who rushed to the suburbs in 2020 have even come to regret it and moved back to the city, missing the culture and convenience of urban living.7
Real estate agents say the initial “frenzy” has calmed, and as return-to-office mandates slowly bring some workers back, a few exurban migrants are reconsidering long commutes.4
By and large, however, suburban life has proven attractive enough that many pandemic movers are staying put – and more keep arriving. That has suburbs evolving to meet new demands and sensibilities.
Reinventing the American Suburb
Urban planners, developers, and suburban city officials are scrambling to retrofit suburbia for the 21st century.
“The suburbs were wonderful places when they were being built, and they helped a lot of generations of families achieve terrific quality of life,” said Ellen Dunham-Jones. “But now after 50 years, we see an enormous list of unintended consequences”8 from auto-dependent sprawl, she noted – from traffic and long commutes to a lack of walkability and rising health issues tied to sedentary lifestyles.8
To address this, many suburbs are investing in “walkable urbanism” – creating pedestrian-friendly town centers, parks, and bike trails so residents can stroll rather than drive.
“Walkable urbanism is now the amenity that is necessary to be able to support office investment and the employees the offices really want,” Dunham-Jones said.8 In other words, companies will be more willing to locate jobs in suburban areas if those areas offer the vibrant, walkable environments that today’s workers (young and old alike) desire.
Building Livable Suburban Communities
Around the country, examples of suburban transformation are popping up. In Wayzata, Minnesota – a suburb of Minneapolis – a developer turned a dead shopping mall into a new mixed-use village with senior housing, shops, a grocery store, a cinema, and an extension of the town’s main street.8
“It sold out even before construction had started,” Dunham-Jones noted, indicating pent-up demand for suburban homes in walkable, amenity-rich settings.8
Across the Sun Belt, master-planned communities are being designed with central squares, walking paths, and even co-working spaces for remote workers. Suburbs of Dallas and Phoenix are adding light-rail lines and transit hubs to give commuters alternatives to driving.
And some inner-ring suburbs of cities like Detroit and St. Louis are rehabilitating their mid-century downtown strips to attract cafés, breweries, and boutiques that give the area a more urban feel.
“Tremendous demand exists for walkable urbanism to be introduced into suburban areas,” Dunham-Jones emphasizes, because it’s not just millennials – even retirees want communities where they can park the car and take a stroll.8
A Permanent Shift or Temporary Trend?
The big question is whether this suburban resurgence represents a permanent realignment of American life, or a temporary blip accelerated by an extraordinary pandemic. Early signs suggest it may have legs.
Remote and hybrid work remain far more common today than in 2019, freeing millions from the old geography of work.4 And millennials, now entering their prime family-raising years, will likely continue to seek the space and relative affordability the suburbs offer.
“Millennials were more urban to start out with,” notes Riordan Frost – they led the 2000s “back to the city” boom – but now that movement is reversing as this generation settles down.3
With Gen Z right behind them, suburbs may continue to grow in diversity and vibrancy. Notably, the suburban population is becoming more diverse racially and ethnically as well, as immigrants and minority families increasingly move directly to suburban areas for opportunity and good schools.5
Cities Fight to Regain Momentum
That said, America’s cities aren’t exactly emptying out wholesale. Recent data hints at some urban rebound in 2022 and 2023 as pandemic fears receded.10
And the allure of the city – culture, restaurants, jobs, public transit – remains strong, especially for young singles and the creative class. In fact, even at the height of the suburban boom, overall U.S. mobility hit record lows (fewer than 8% of Americans moved in a year),10 suggesting many people simply stayed put.
The suburban surge has been less a mass evacuation than a rebalancing: those who were inclined to move had new options, and they overwhelmingly chose places with a lawn.
The Enduring American Dream
For now, the cul-de-sac is calling for a new generation of Americans. In an ironic twist, the pandemic that kept people apart also rekindled a very traditional American dream: a home of one’s own outside the city, with a patch of green and room to breathe.
“In American history, the desire for an independently owned house with at least an excuse for a yard goes way back, at least to the late 1700s,” observes Alexander von Hoffman, an urban planner and historian at Harvard.7 That ideal, he notes, is deeply ingrained in the nation’s culture and housing policy.
Now, after a decade where urban downtowns stole the spotlight, the American suburb is having its moment once again. And from the look of things – packed moving vans on city blocks, sold signs sprouting like dandelions in new subdivisions – this suburban renaissance may be more than a passing trend.
As long as people continue to seek affordability, space, family life, and flexibility, the suburbs will be ready to welcome them back with open arms and freshly paved driveways.
References
- Business Insider – Americans, Especially Millennials, Regret Moving to New Cities, Nov. 2023
- Economic Innovation Group – Exodus from Urban Counties Hit a Record in 2021, March 2022
- Mansion Global/WSJ – Moving Closer to Home is Trending in the U.S., Nov. 2022
- Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies – After Leading a Back-to-the-City Movement, Many Millennials Moved to the Suburbs, Mar. 2024
- Harvard JCHS – Domestic Migration Drove State and Local Population Change in 2021, Aug. 2022
- Business Insider – Millennials and Gen Z are fleeing cities and buying up homes in the suburbs, Nov. 20, 2020
- Business Insider – Americans Regretting Moves from City to Suburbs, Nov. 2023
- ULI (Urban Land Institute) – Retrofitting Suburbs into Walkable, Amenity-Rich Neighborhoods, Nov. 2015
- Bush Center – Americans keep moving to high-opportunity cities in the sun belt, 2023
- Brookings – New census data hints at an urban population revival, 2023
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