Kansas experienced significant shifts in its housing market from 2018 through 2023. This period saw home prices climb sharply, housing inventory tighten, and interest rates swing from record lows to decade highs – all factors that shaped the decisions of “budget-conscious” households earning under $250,000.
Let’s look at how these trends played out across urban and rural regions of Kansas, how different types of buyers behaved, what kinds of properties they bought, and whether they upsized, downsized, or relocated.
Urban vs. Rural Housing Market Trends
The Urban-Rural Divide
Kansas’s housing trends have diverged between its urban centers and rural communities. In metropolitan areas (Kansas City suburbs, Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, and Manhattan), strong demand and limited supply created a robust seller’s market. Home prices in urban counties rose faster than local incomes, making them increasingly less affordable.
A Federal Reserve analysis found that in U.S. metro counties, the share of income needed to afford a median home jumped from 23% in 2018–19 to 33% in 2024, whereas in non-metro (rural) counties it rose from 19% to 26%. This indicates that while rural areas remain more affordable than cities, the affordability gap between urban and rural markets has widened.
Rural Housing Challenges
Rural Kansas faces its own housing challenges. Many small towns and farming communities have a shortage of quality, affordable housing, which has become a barrier to economic growth and development. Years of low construction activity have left rural Kansas with very old housing: in north-central Kansas, the median home is over 80 years old.
New development tends to concentrate in cities, so rural markets have seen relatively few new homes built. Indeed, homebuilders focus on population centers where they can benefit from economies of scale, resulting in fewer new housing options in rural counties. This means rural residents often have to choose between aging homes or no home at all – a factor that can push people to leave for urban areas.
Vacancy Rates and Migration
Statewide data confirms the supply strain: the number of vacant housing units in Kansas fell dramatically over the past decade. The rental vacancy rate dropped from about 10.1% in 2010 to 6.5% by 2023 (a 35% decrease), and the homeowner vacancy rate was roughly halved (from 2.1% to 1.1%). Such declines in vacancy reflect a tight housing supply in both rural and urban settings – but the consequences differ. In cities, tight supply means rising prices and fierce competition; in rural areas, it often means people have no homes available at all.
The 2020–2023 period saw interesting migration patterns. The relatively lower home prices in the Midwest began attracting some out-of-state buyers looking to escape expensive coastal markets. Remote work during the pandemic made it possible for some families to relocate from high-cost cities to Kansas in search of bigger or cheaper homes.
However, Kansas’s overall population growth remained modest. Within the state, there is evidence of ongoing urbanization – younger people often leave rural counties for job opportunities in Kansas City, Wichita, or other cities, while some older residents stay in rural communities. The result is that rural Kansas continues to grapple with population decline and housing disinvestment in many counties, even as the urban hubs thrive.
First-Time, Repeat, and Retiree Homebuyer Behavior
The First-Time Buyer Struggle
First-time homebuyers faced steep hurdles by the early 2020s. Nationwide, the first-time buyer share fell to historic lows as prices and interest rates climbed. The National Association of Realtors reports that the first-time buyer market share dropped to just 24% of buyers in 2023, down from 32% a year prior. In other words, repeat buyers (existing homeowners) have vastly outnumbered first-timers recently.
First-time buyers in Kansas tend to be younger adults or young families, and they are very price-sensitive. As homes became less affordable, many delayed buying and remained renters. Those who did buy had to be older and earn more income than first-timers of the past. Nationally the median age of a first-time homebuyer hit 38 in 2023 (up from 35 just a year before), and their median household income jumped to $97,000.
We can infer a similar trend in Kansas: by 2022–2023, first-time buyers often needed incomes well above the median to compete, given Kansas’s statewide average sale price was around $281,000 by late 2022. First-time buyers increasingly relied on special programs (like the Kansas Housing Resources Corporation’s down payment assistance or federal FHA loans) to cobble together enough for a down payment and closing costs.
Repeat Buyers’ Advantage
Repeat buyers (those who already own a home and are moving to another) held the advantage in recent years. Existing homeowners can tap equity gains from their current home, giving them larger down payments or even the ability to pay cash for the next house. In 2023 a record 26% of U.S. homebuyers paid all-cash (many of them repeat buyers or investors). Kansas realtors similarly saw high cash buying activity, especially from retirees and those relocating from pricier markets with cash in hand.
Repeat buyers in Kansas are often in their 40s, 50s, or 60s – in 2023 the national median age for repeat buyers was 61 – and many are empty-nesters or retirees making a lifestyle move. This group could leverage the run-up in Kansas home prices (nearly +40% in median value from 2018 to 2023) to sell high and potentially downsize or relocate. Their built-up home equity acted like a “forced savings,” enabling large down payments on the next home or even an outright purchase.
Retiree and Senior Homebuying Patterns
Retirees and senior buyers form a subset of repeat buyers with specific behaviors. Kansas’s population is aging, with the 65–74 age cohort growing the fastest since 2010. Many retirees seek to downsize from the large family home to something smaller, cheaper, or easier to maintain. This can mean selling a long-time house (often to younger families who are upsizing) and moving into a patio home, condo, or even an age-restricted community.
There is evidence that many Kansas seniors are staying in-state after retirement. For the housing market, seniors staying put can contribute to low inventory (since they may age in place longer rather than sell), but those who do move often free up existing homes for the next generation.
One trend accelerated by recent conditions is multigenerational living: some retirees have moved in with adult children or vice versa. Nationally, 17% of home purchases in 2023 were multigenerational – the highest share on record – often to take care of aging parents or to pool resources for cost savings. In Kansas, it’s not uncommon for a retiree to sell their home and move into a child’s home (perhaps with an in-law suite addition), or for families to buy a larger single-family house that can accommodate grandparents.
Property Types and Buyer Preferences
Single-Family Dominance
The vast majority of home purchases by moderate-income buyers are single-family homes. Kansas is a state of homeowners and houses – nearly two-thirds of households are owner-occupants, and most of those owners live in detached single-family houses. According to Census data, Kansas had about 924,000 single-family detached homes in its housing stock by 2023, comprising the bulk of available properties.
For budget-conscious buyers under $250K income, a standalone house is typically the first choice, offering more space and often a yard for the money. Through 2018–2023, single-family homes remained highly sought-after across Kansas, leading to intense competition especially for those in the entry-level price ranges. In Wichita, for example, the greatest share of sales in 2020 were in the $100,000–$200,000 price range, which consists almost entirely of modest single-family houses (many of them older stock).
Statewide data shows that even as total housing units increased, the number of detached houses barely grew (up only 0.4% from 2018 to 2023) while demand surged. This mismatch pushed buyers to bid up prices on single-family listings.
Alternative Housing Options
Some buyers explored alternatives to the classic detached house. Townhouses, duplexes, and condominiums – which often come at a lower price or lower maintenance burden – garnered interest, especially from downsizing seniors and some first-time buyers.
From 2018 to 2023, the count of attached single-family homes (townhomes) in Kansas rose about 9.5% (to ~62,800 units), and small multifamily homes like duplexes and tri-/four-plexes also increased by 2–7%. This suggests that more medium-density housing has been built or sold in recent years, albeit from a small base.
In suburbs of Kansas City and Wichita, new townhome developments have appeared to cater to emptier-nesters and young professionals looking for a more affordable buy than a detached house. Condominiums are a relatively small segment in Kansas, since most condo developments are in downtown cores or college towns; still, where available (such as condos in Lawrence or high-rise units in Kansas City, KS), they attracted certain buyers wanting an urban lifestyle or low maintenance living.
Manufactured Homes and Vacation Properties
Manufactured homes (mobile homes) are another part of the market for lower-income buyers, particularly in rural areas. Kansas has a sizable number of mobile/manufactured homes (over 52,000 in 2023, though down from 56,000 in 2018). These homes often offer the lowest-cost entry to homeownership – a new single-wide mobile home can be far cheaper than a site-built house.
Throughout the late 2010s, some budget-conscious families in rural Kansas purchased manufactured homes and placed them on inexpensive land as an alternative to renting. However, the total number of mobile homes has slightly declined (a 6.2% drop in those units from 2018 to 2023). This decline could be due to older mobile units being retired or the difficulty of financing and siting new manufactured homes.
For households under $250K annual income, true vacation-home purchases have been relatively uncommon in Kansas during 2018–2023. Second-home buying tends to be the domain of higher-income families or investors. Kansas is not a typical vacation-home market, though a minority of residents do buy lake cottages or hunting cabins in-state, or a condo in warmer states for winter.
In the Wichita area, for instance, only about 9% of home sales in 2020 were to “absentee owners” (investors or second-home buyers), which is down from previous years and well below the national investor share. This indicates that the vast majority of Kansas home purchases are for primary residences.
Upsizing, Downsizing, and Relocating Trends
The Upsizing Boom
During the booming pre-pandemic years and the early pandemic housing frenzy, many buyers were upsizing. Millennials and Gen X families, in particular, took advantage of low interest rates to move from smaller starter homes or rentals into larger houses.
In 2020 and 2021, with mortgage rates dipping below 3%, a buyer could afford significantly more house for the same monthly payment, and they often did. Additionally, the pandemic shifted preferences toward more space: with remote work and remote schooling, families wanted extra rooms, home offices, and bigger yards. Stories abounded of Kansas City area buyers bidding aggressively to win homes in suburban neighborhoods with more square footage.
Indeed, by mid-2021 homes in the Kansas City metro were often selling above asking price (103% of list price on average) amid frenzied competition. This competitive upsizing trend was common in suburbs of Johnson County, KS and around Wichita, where eager buyers moved quickly to get bigger homes.
Downsizing Patterns
Downsizing has been a notable trend mostly among older homeowners in Kansas. Many Baby Boomers reached retirement or empty-nest stage during this period. Some opted to sell their large family homes (often to those upsizing younger families) and move into smaller houses or condos.
Downsizing isn’t purely driven by age; sometimes it’s financial – a household might downsize to reduce expenses or cash out equity. In the late 2010s, downsizers could take advantage of rising prices to sell high, then perhaps move to a less expensive town or buy a cheaper property and pocket the difference.
However, one obstacle for downsizers in Kansas has been the lack of suitable inventory. There are limited townhome or ranch-style condo developments where seniors can move. Without many of these options available, some older Kansans simply stayed put in their big homes longer than they might have otherwise, contributing to low listing inventory. Those who did downsize often had to compete with first-time buyers for the same small houses.
Relocation Patterns
Relocation within Kansas happened for various reasons: job changes, desire to be nearer to family, or seeking a different lifestyle. A number of urban dwellers relocated to exurban or rural areas in 2020–2021, motivated by remote work opportunities and the appeal of more space or lower cost housing.
For example, someone working from Kansas City might choose to move to a smaller city like Emporia or a rural county where they could buy a large property for the price of a tiny urban home. On the flip side, some people moved from rural areas into regional hubs (like Wichita or Manhattan) to access services or healthcare as they aged.
There were also moves just within metro areas – for instance, families leaving the dense parts of Wichita for more spacious homes in the outskirts, effectively a suburban migration. The era’s historically low mortgage rates made these intra-state moves feasible and attractive.
The Rate Shock Effect
By 2022–2023, all these patterns were disrupted by the rapid rise in mortgage rates and home prices. The ability to upsize became constrained – many homeowners felt “locked in” to their current home with its ultra-low interest rate and were reluctant to move and face a much higher rate on a new mortgage.
This lock-in effect led to fewer people listing their homes, which in turn meant fewer upsizing or downsizing moves could happen. Home sales in Kansas dropped steeply in late 2022 (for example, –32% year-over-year in December 2022) because both buyers and sellers pulled back.
People who might have upsized or downsized chose to wait, resulting in a kind of stalemate in 2023. Relocations slowed as well – except in cases of absolute necessity – since both buying and selling a home had become more difficult.
Financing and Mortgage Choices of Buyers
The Rate Rollercoaster
For most of this era, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages were the go-to loan product for Kansas homebuyers, offering predictable payments. When rates were low (2018–2021), nearly everyone locked in fixed rates to take advantage. By late 2021, the national average 30-year mortgage rate was around 3.1% – incredibly favorable for buyers. Such low rates meant even expensive homes had relatively affordable monthly payments, which is one reason prices were bid up.
Starting in 2022, however, financing costs soared. By January 2023, 30-year rates averaged 6.15%, and later in 2023 they fluctuated around the mid-6% to 7% range. This doubling of interest rates within a year dealt a major blow to affordability: a buyer on a fixed budget suddenly qualified for a much smaller loan.
In Kansas, where home prices were still rising in 2022–23, this created a crunch. Even though prices hadn’t fallen, the spike in mortgage rates was pricing some buyers out. For example, the statewide average sale price was up ~5% year-over-year at the end of 2022, but with interest at 6% instead of 3%, the monthly payment on that average home was far higher.
Government-Backed and Alternative Loan Products
Many buyers turned to government-backed loans and creative financing to cope. FHA loans, insured by the Federal Housing Administration, have been especially important for first-time and moderate-income buyers in Kansas. FHA allows down payments as low as 3.5% and more lenient credit requirements, which helped many renters make the leap to ownership.
VA loans (backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs) are another key option in Kansas, given the state’s significant military presence (Fort Riley, Fort Leavenworth, McConnell Air Force Base, and many National Guard members). VA loans require zero down payment and offer competitive interest rates with no mortgage insurance, an attractive deal for those who qualify.
In addition, the USDA Rural Development loan program has been a valuable tool in Kansas’s numerous rural counties – it provides 0%-down mortgages for income-qualified buyers in rural areas. This meant that a family of modest means could buy a home in a small Kansas town with no down payment, something not possible with conventional loans.
Another notable shift was the comeback of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) in 2022–2023. During the ultra-low-rate years, virtually everyone chose fixed rates. But as 30-year fixed rates jumped above 6%, some buyers and lenders revisited ARMs as a way to lower initial payments.
In the Wichita area, ARMs had been only a tiny fraction of loans in 2010 (around 2%), but by the late 2010s they grew to about 6.6% of home loans in the market. This threefold increase indicates borrowers were using ARMs more to qualify for homes as prices climbed.
Down Payment Trends
With home values shooting up, a 20% down payment became a larger sum of money, so many buyers put less down. The median down payment for all U.S. buyers in 2023 was 18%, but for first-time buyers it was only 9%, reflecting widespread use of low-down loans.
Kansas buyers followed suit: few first-time buyers could afford 20% down (which on a $250,000 home would be $50k). Instead, they used 3-5% down programs or maybe 10% if they had help from family. Repeat buyers downsizing or moving could often roll over equity and achieve 20%+ down, avoiding mortgage insurance – a luxury not available to most younger buyers.
Recognizing the down payment barrier, the state and various local agencies offered assistance. The Kansas Housing Resources Corporation (KHRC) administers a First Time Homebuyer Program that helps income-eligible buyers with down payment and closing costs. Similarly, some cities and nonprofits provided grants or forgivable loans to help with down payments for public service employees or low-income families.
Rental Market Impact on Homebuying
Rising Rents and Homebuying Motivation
The relationship between the rental market and homebuying in Kansas during this period was significant. Kansas’s rental market tightened considerably in these years, which put pressure on many households. Rents rose rapidly after 2019, especially in metro areas.
According to Zillow’s Observed Rent Index, cities like Wichita saw rents climb over 40% from 2017 to 2024. College towns such as Lawrence (+42%) and smaller cities like Salina (+47%) experienced hefty rent growth as well, in line with the national post-pandemic rent surge.
By 2022, about 43% of Kansas renters were cost-burdened (paying over 30% of income on housing), compared to only 19% of homeowners. This gap highlights that renters were feeling the squeeze far more acutely. Many renters in Kansas saw their monthly payments for a 2-bedroom apartment approach or exceed the cost of owning a starter home (especially when mortgage rates were low).
For those with stable jobs and decent credit, this was a strong incentive to buy: why keep paying ever-rising rent to a landlord when you could potentially have a mortgage (with a fixed payment) and build equity for yourself?
The Rent vs. Buy Calculation Shift
During 2020–2021, historically low interest rates made the rent-vs-buy calculation tilt heavily in favor of buying in Kansas. In some cities, the monthly payment on a median-priced home (with 3% interest) was lower than the average rent for a comparable house.
This pushed many renters off the fence – if they could cobble together a down payment, they eagerly jumped into the buyer pool. This surge of first-time buyer demand, fueled in part by frustration with high rents, contributed to the competitive housing market.
Unfortunately, not everyone could make the leap: those who couldn’t save enough or who got outbid remained renters, and they then faced even higher rents as rental vacancies dropped. Kansas’s rental vacancy rate declined to around 6.5% by 2023, one of the lowest in decades. Fewer vacant units means landlords have more pricing power, so rents remained elevated.
When the market shifted in 2022–2023, the rent/buy equation shifted too. Suddenly, with 6-7% mortgage rates, buying became a lot more expensive on a monthly basis. In some Kansas cities, renting started to look comparatively better than buying, at least in the short term.
For example, in late 2023 the average Kansas home value was about $228,000; with a 6.5% mortgage and 5% down, the monthly principal and interest would be roughly $1,350 (not including taxes/insurance). Many nice apartments could be rented for that or less. So, some households that had intended to buy paused their plans and continued renting, hoping that interest rates might come down or that they could save up more.
Investor Impact on Housing Markets
The strength of the rental market drew in investors, which indirectly affected homebuyers. When investors purchase entry-level houses to use as rentals, they remove those homes from the pool that first-time buyers could have bought.
In Kansas, investor activity was notable in certain markets (for example, some suburban homes and small single-family properties in Wichita and Kansas City were scooped up by rental investors during 2020–21). In neighborhoods with cheap homes, first-time buyers sometimes found themselves competing with cash investors who could offer quick, no-contingency deals.
Comparing 2018–2023 with the 2008–2017 Decade
Home Prices and Affordability Contrast
The Kansas housing trends of 2018–2023 differ markedly from those of the previous decade (2008–2017). The late 2000s were dominated by the Great Recession and its aftermath, which had an opposite effect on many housing metrics compared to the recent boom.
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, Kansas home prices stagnated or even dipped in some areas. By 2010, many Kansas homes were selling for prices not much higher (in nominal terms) than in the mid-2000s. Combined with low interest rates, this made the early 2010s a very affordable time to buy.
By contrast, 2018–2023 saw affordability erode. The median value of owner-occupied homes in Kansas rose about 40% from 2018 to 2023. This outpaced income growth, so the affordability index fell. And if we look at late 2023 in isolation with the high rates, affordability was even worse – many buyers needed well above median income to afford an average home.
Inventory and Market Balance Reversal
Around 2008–2012, Kansas had a glut of housing inventory in many markets. The Great Recession brought a spike in foreclosures; properties lingered on the market and vacancy rates were elevated. State data shows Kansas’s homeowner vacancy rate was 2.1% in 2010, reflecting that lots of homes were unoccupied or for sale. Many buyers back then had the luxury of choosing from plenty of listings and even negotiating prices down.
Fast forward to 2018–2021, and inventory hit record lows. By the end of 2019, Kansas’s for-sale inventory was already shrinking, and during the pandemic it plunged further – by December 2022, the number of homes on the market was 40% less than at the end of 2019. The transition from surplus to shortage over the decade is clear. It stems from a combination of under-building (construction lagged household formation after 2008) and increasing demand in the late 2010s.
New construction only partially filled the gap – for instance, even in the recent boom, Kansas was issuing under 5,000 single-family building permits per year, far below what was needed to significantly boost supply.
Interest Rate Patterns
Both decades benefited from relatively low interest rates historically, but the trajectory was different. The 2008–2017 period started with rates around 6-7% in 2007–2008, then the Federal Reserve slashed rates to fight the recession. By 2012, mortgage rates were at then-record lows (~3.5–4%), and they remained quite low throughout the mid-2010s.
Jump to 2018–2023: rates initially ticked up in 2018 (briefly near 5%), then fell to all-time lows (~2.7%) in late 2020 amid the pandemic stimulus, and then surged to around 7% by 2023. The volatility was much greater. Earlier decade buyers had a pretty stable rate environment (and mostly downward); recent buyers faced a whipsaw in borrowing costs.
Buyer Psychology and Market Dynamics
In the late 2000s, buyers had the upper hand. There were fewer buyers than sellers; houses could sit unsold for months. It was common then for offers to come in below asking price, and for sellers to offer concessions (like paying closing costs) to attract buyers.
Fast-forward to 2018–2021, and the psychology reversed – sellers had the upper hand. Homes often sold within days, frequently above asking price, with buyers waiving inspections or other contingencies to compete. As one metric, in the Kansas City area the average sale-to-list price ratio was 96–98% around 2010, but shot up to 103% in mid-2021.
Only in 2022–2023 did this start to moderate (by late 2023, KC homes were selling at about 97% of list on average – a return to a more balanced state). The previous decade never saw anything like the 2021 bidding wars because the demand simply wasn’t as heated and there was more slack in the system.
Overall, comparing 2008–2017 to 2018–2023 in Kansas reveals nearly inverse conditions: The former began in crisis and gradually recovered; the latter began in prosperity and surged to new heights before being checked by inflation and interest rate hikes.
References
- First-Time Homeownership Became Less Affordable Across Most of the United States in Recent Years – Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
- Data reveals surprising truths about Kansas housing – KLC Journal
- Kansas State Data Center
- First-Time Home Buyers Shrink to Historic Low of 24% as Buyer Age Hits Record High – ResourceKC
- Kansas Housing Market Stats – December 2022 – Kansas Association of REALTORS®
- Kansas Housing Market Stats – December 2023 – Kansas Association of REALTORS®
- Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis for Wichita, Kansas
- KC Area Fast Stats | June 2021
- December 2022 Kansas City Market Update – The Rost Group
- Housing market shortage comes to Kansas City
- WSU Center for Real Estate Releases Kansas Housing Markets Forecast – Ingram’s
- Kansas Housing Market: 2025 Home Prices & Trends | Zillow
- [PDF] Financial Status of the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund FY 2023
- [PDF] First Time Homebuyer Program
- The U.S. Economic Outlook
