According to the latest Zillow Home Value Index data, parts of Colorado’s housing market are flashing warning lights. We’ve identified 19 towns showing strong signs of a potential downturn—based on patterns that mirror what happened just before past housing crashes. These communities are trading far above their long-term price trends, with some towns 80% to 123% over their historical averages. From $1.3 million homes in ski towns like Avon to smaller markets riding unsustainable price spikes, the data shows a growing mismatch between home values and market fundamentals.
19. Ramah – Crash Risk Percentage: 55%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 55%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -5.29% (2025)
- Total price increase since 2010: +179.7%
- Overextended above long-term average: 80.9%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 9.2%
- Current May 2025 price: $598,553
Ramah presents a moderate crash risk profile with its current median price sitting nearly 81% above historical trends. The town has experienced two significant price drops exceeding 5%, including a recent 5.29% decline in 2025 that signals potential momentum loss. Despite strong growth since 2010, the market appears to be cooling with prices retreating from 2024 peaks of over $630,000.
Ramah – Eastern Plains Community Showing Price Volatility
Located in El Paso County on Colorado’s eastern plains, Ramah is a small agricultural community that has seen dramatic price swings over the past decade. The town’s proximity to Colorado Springs has driven significant interest from buyers seeking more affordable alternatives to urban markets. However, the recent 5.29% price drop in 2025 suggests this rural market may be reaching affordability limits for many potential buyers.
The community’s high volatility rating of 9.2% reflects the challenges of maintaining stable property values in smaller rural markets. With limited inventory and fewer comparable sales, Ramah’s housing market can experience sharp price movements when buyer sentiment shifts. The current overextension of 80.9% above long-term averages suggests prices may need to correct significantly to return to sustainable levels relative to local income and economic fundamentals.
18. Pierce – Crash Risk Percentage: 55%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 55%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -6.10% (2024)
- Total price increase since 2013: +116.1%
- Overextended above long-term average: 133.8%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 7.8%
- Current May 2025 price: $481,820
Pierce shows concerning overextension at 133.8% above its long-term average, marking it as one of the most mathematically unsustainable markets in our analysis. The town has endured two significant crashes, including a notable 6.10% drop in 2024, followed by marginal recovery in 2025. This pattern suggests underlying market weakness despite relatively modest current pricing compared to ski resort communities.
Pierce – Weld County Town With Extreme Overextension
Pierce sits in northern Colorado’s Weld County, an area traditionally dominated by agriculture and energy production. The town’s dramatic 116% price increase since 2013 reflects broader trends in Colorado’s northern communities, where buyers priced out of Boulder and Denver markets have pushed into previously affordable rural areas. However, Pierce’s extreme overextension of nearly 134% above historical averages suggests prices have far exceeded what local economic conditions can sustain.
The recent back-to-back price declines in 2024 and minimal recovery in 2025 indicate buyer resistance at current price levels. Pierce’s economy remains tied to agricultural and energy sectors, which provide limited support for median home prices approaching $500,000. The combination of extreme overvaluation and recent momentum loss creates conditions similar to those preceding previous housing corrections in similar rural Colorado communities.
17. Boone – Crash Risk Percentage: 55%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 55%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -1.40% (2023)
- Total price increase since 2016: +137.8%
- Overextended above long-term average: 129.1%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 6.7%
- Current May 2025 price: $249,511
Boone represents an interesting case study in rapid rural appreciation, with prices more than doubling since 2016 despite its remote location. The town’s 129% overextension above historical averages is particularly concerning given the limited economic drivers in this southeastern Colorado community. While Boone has avoided major crashes historically, the mathematical unsustainability of current pricing suggests vulnerability to correction.
Boone – Remote Pueblo County Community With Rapid Growth
Boone is located in southeastern Colorado’s Pueblo County, an area characterized by vast agricultural lands and limited population density. The town’s remarkable 137.8% price appreciation since 2016 appears disconnected from local economic fundamentals, as the area lacks major employers or significant development projects that would justify such dramatic increases. The current median price of nearly $250,000 represents a substantial premium for this rural location.
The community’s overextension of 129% above long-term trends suggests prices have been driven more by external market pressures than local demand. As urban buyers face affordability constraints, some have ventured into remote areas like Boone, creating artificial price inflation. However, the practical challenges of living in such isolated locations may limit sustained demand at current price levels, particularly if broader economic conditions deteriorate or interest rates remain elevated.
16. Fruita – Crash Risk Percentage: 55%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 55%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -3.27% (2011)
- Total price increase since 2010: +118.4%
- Overextended above long-term average: 80.4%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 6.2%
- Current May 2025 price: $308,832
Fruita demonstrates steady but potentially unsustainable growth patterns, with prices more than doubling since 2010. The town’s 80.4% overextension above historical averages, combined with consistent appreciation even through challenging market periods, suggests accumulated risk. While Fruita has shown resilience compared to other Colorado markets, current pricing appears stretched relative to this western slope community’s economic base.
Fruita – Western Slope Gateway With Outdoor Recreation Appeal
Fruita serves as a gateway to Colorado’s western slope, positioned near the Colorado National Monument and renowned for world-class mountain biking trails. The town’s appeal to outdoor recreation enthusiasts has driven consistent demand, contributing to its 118% price appreciation since 2010. However, the current median price of nearly $309,000 represents a significant increase for a community traditionally known for affordability compared to ski resort towns.
The area’s economy relies heavily on tourism, agriculture, and energy sectors, which may not provide sufficient income support for continued price appreciation at current levels. Fruita’s 80% overextension suggests the market has priced in significant future growth expectations that may prove difficult to achieve. As recreational property markets across Colorado face increasing scrutiny from buyers concerned about affordability, Fruita’s premium pricing relative to historical norms creates vulnerability to correction.
15. De Beque – Crash Risk Percentage: 60%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 60%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -7.69% (2011)
- Total price increase since 2010: +108.2%
- Overextended above long-term average: 83.1%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 9.6%
- Current May 2025 price: $497,234
De Beque enters higher risk territory with a 60% crash probability, reflecting its history of significant price volatility and current overextension. The town experienced a substantial 7.69% crash in 2011 and shows concerning momentum loss with consecutive price declines in 2024 and 2025. Despite strong historical growth, the recent weakness suggests buyer fatigue at current price levels approaching $500,000.
De Beque – Colorado River Community With Energy Sector Exposure
De Beque sits along the Colorado River in Mesa County, historically serving energy sector workers and agricultural operations. The town’s 108% price appreciation since 2010 reflects broader western slope trends, but the current median price near $500,000 appears disconnected from local wage levels. The recent consecutive price declines in 2024 and 2025 suggest the market is beginning to resist these elevated levels.
The community’s high volatility rating of 9.6% reflects the cyclical nature of energy sector employment, which heavily influences local housing demand. De Beque’s 83% overextension above historical trends coincides with a period of uncertainty in Colorado’s energy markets, creating additional downward pressure on property values. The combination of sector-specific economic challenges and mathematical overvaluation suggests significant correction potential if energy employment continues to fluctuate or decline.
14. Commerce City – Crash Risk Percentage: 62%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 62%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -3.70% (2011)
- Total price increase since 2010: +146.7%
- Overextended above long-term average: 75.6%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 6.5%
- Current May 2025 price: $624,008
Commerce City presents elevated crash risk despite its proximity to Denver, with clear momentum loss evident in 2025 following years of dramatic appreciation. The town’s 146.7% price increase since 2010 has pushed median values to over $624,000, creating affordability challenges even for this historically working-class community. Recent price volatility and the current 75.6% overextension suggest market saturation at these levels.
Commerce City – Denver Metro Suburb With Momentum Loss
Commerce City occupies a strategic position in the northern Denver metropolitan area, historically known for industrial operations and working-class neighborhoods. The dramatic 146.7% price appreciation since 2010 reflects the broader Denver housing boom, but recent momentum loss indicates the market may have reached its ceiling. The current median price of $624,008 represents a significant premium for buyers considering this location versus other Denver suburbs.
The city’s economy benefits from proximity to Denver International Airport and various industrial facilities, but wage growth has not kept pace with housing appreciation. Commerce City’s recent price decline in 2025, following modest gains in 2024, suggests buyer resistance at current levels. The combination of affordability constraints and momentum loss creates conditions similar to those preceding corrections in other Denver-area communities that experienced rapid appreciation beyond sustainable levels.
13. Whitewater – Crash Risk Percentage: 65%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 65%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -5.41% (2023)
- Total price increase since 2011: +183.5%
- Overextended above long-term average: 81.2%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 7.2%
- Current May 2025 price: $648,207
Whitewater moves into high crash risk territory with a 65% probability, driven by extreme appreciation and recent volatility patterns. The community has experienced massive 183.5% growth since 2011, pushing median prices to over $648,000 despite its small size and limited amenities. The significant 5.41% crash in 2023, followed by volatile recovery patterns, suggests underlying market instability.
Whitewater – Mesa County Community With Extreme Appreciation
Whitewater is a small unincorporated community in Mesa County, positioned between Grand Junction and the Colorado National Monument. Despite its limited infrastructure and rural character, the area has experienced extraordinary 183.5% price appreciation since 2011, driven primarily by buyers seeking alternatives to more expensive markets. The current median price exceeding $648,000 appears unsustainable for this location’s amenities and economic opportunities.
The community’s crash risk stems from its mathematical overextension and recent demonstration of price volatility. The 5.41% decline in 2023 followed by erratic recovery suggests buyers are becoming increasingly price-sensitive at these elevated levels. Whitewater’s appeal relies heavily on proximity to outdoor recreation and relative affordability compared to ski resorts, but current pricing has eroded much of that affordability advantage, creating vulnerability to significant correction.
12. Mesa – Crash Risk Percentage: 65%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 65%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -5.30% (2012)
- Total price increase since 2010: +111.4%
- Overextended above long-term average: 91.7%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 10.3%
- Current May 2025 price: $220,988
Mesa shows high crash risk despite relatively modest absolute pricing, with significant overextension at 91.7% above historical averages and concerning volatility patterns. The town’s 111.4% appreciation since 2010 has doubled prices, but recent momentum loss in 2025 suggests buyer resistance even at these comparatively affordable levels. The high volatility rating of 10.3% indicates substantial price instability in this small market.
Mesa – Mesa County Agricultural Community With High Volatility
Mesa is a small agricultural community in Mesa County, traditionally serving farming and ranching operations in Colorado’s western region. Despite its rural character and limited economic diversification, the town has experienced significant price appreciation that has doubled values since 2010. However, the current median price near $221,000, while modest compared to resort communities, represents a substantial increase for this agricultural area’s economic base.
The community’s high volatility rating of 10.3% reflects the challenges of maintaining stable property values in thin rural markets with limited transaction volumes. Mesa’s 91.7% overextension above historical trends suggests prices have been driven by external factors rather than local economic fundamentals. The recent price decline in 2025 indicates buyer resistance, and the combination of high volatility and overextension creates significant potential for larger corrections if demand continues to weaken.
11. Palisade – Crash Risk Percentage: 65%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 65%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -5.03% (2023)
- Total price increase since 2010: +151.2%
- Overextended above long-term average: 93.4%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 8.7%
- Current May 2025 price: $640,217
Palisade demonstrates high crash risk with extreme overextension at 93.4% above historical trends and a median price exceeding $640,000. The town’s 151.2% appreciation since 2010 has created significant affordability challenges for this wine country community. Recent volatility, including a 5.03% crash in 2023, suggests market stress at current pricing levels despite Palisade’s tourism and agricultural appeal.
Palisade – Wine Country Destination With Tourism Premium
Palisade has established itself as Colorado’s premier wine country destination, attracting tourists and second-home buyers to this picturesque Mesa County community. The town’s 151.2% price appreciation since 2010 reflects growing recognition of its wine industry and scenic location along the Colorado River. However, the current median price of $640,217 represents a substantial premium for a small agricultural community, even considering its tourism appeal.
The area’s economy combines traditional agriculture with growing wine tourism, but these sectors may not provide sufficient income support for sustained appreciation at current levels. Palisade’s 93.4% overextension above historical averages suggests the market has priced in significant future growth that may prove difficult to achieve. The recent 5.03% price decline in 2023 demonstrates buyer sensitivity to these elevated levels, and continued tourism dependency creates vulnerability to broader economic downturns that could trigger more significant corrections.
10. Derby – Crash Risk Percentage: 67%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 67%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -5.12% (2023)
- Total price increase since 2010: +171.2%
- Overextended above long-term average: 100.9%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 7.9%
- Current May 2025 price: $3,536,687
Derby enters very high crash risk territory with an alarming 67% probability, driven by extreme overextension exceeding 100% above historical averages and ultra-premium pricing over $3.5 million. The town has experienced significant volatility, including momentum loss following the 2023 crash. Despite recent price recovery, the mathematical unsustainability of current levels creates enormous correction potential in this luxury market segment.
Derby – Ultra-Luxury Market With Extreme Overextension
Derby represents one of Colorado’s most exclusive residential markets, with median prices exceeding $3.5 million reflecting its appeal to ultra-wealthy buyers seeking privacy and mountain access. The community’s 171.2% appreciation since 2010 has pushed values to levels that exceed even many established luxury markets. However, Derby’s overextension of over 100% above historical trends suggests prices have reached mathematically unsustainable levels even for this premium segment.
The luxury market’s dependence on discretionary wealth makes it particularly vulnerable to economic volatility and changing buyer sentiment. Derby’s recent 5.12% crash in 2023, followed by continued momentum concerns, indicates buyer resistance even among high-net-worth purchasers. The combination of extreme overvaluation and luxury market dynamics creates conditions for potentially severe corrections, as wealthy buyers typically have multiple location options and can easily defer purchases when markets appear overextended.
9. Loma – Crash Risk Percentage: 70%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 70%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 3
- Worst historical crash: -19.72% (2022)
- Total price increase since 2019: +66.7%
- Overextended above long-term average: 86.0%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 5.4%
- Current May 2025 price: $389,862
Loma presents very high crash risk at 70% probability, with a concerning history of three significant crashes including an extreme 19.72% decline in 2022. Despite recent recovery, the town’s pattern of dramatic appreciation followed by sharp corrections creates substantial vulnerability. The current price near $390,000 represents significant growth from recent lows, but the mathematical overextension suggests another correction cycle may be developing.
Loma – Mesa County Community With Extreme Volatility History
Loma is a small unincorporated community in Mesa County that has demonstrated extreme price volatility over recent years. The town’s massive 19.72% crash in 2022 represents one of the largest single-year declines in our Colorado analysis, followed by periods of recovery that have pushed prices back above sustainable levels. This boom-bust pattern creates significant uncertainty for potential buyers and suggests underlying market instability.
The community’s current 86% overextension above historical trends, combined with its demonstrated history of sharp corrections, creates substantial downside risk. Loma’s appeal stems from its rural character and relative affordability compared to more developed areas, but the recent 66.7% appreciation since 2019 has eroded much of that affordability advantage. The combination of proven volatility and current overextension suggests high probability of another significant correction cycle.
8. Sheridan – Crash Risk Percentage: 72%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 72%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 3
- Worst historical crash: -2.96% (2023)
- Total price increase since 2010: +239.8%
- Overextended above long-term average: 84.1%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 7.9%
- Current May 2025 price: $438,705
Sheridan shows very high crash risk at 72% probability, driven by extreme 239.8% appreciation since 2010 and demonstrated momentum loss patterns. The town has experienced three historical crashes and shows clear signs of buyer fatigue with recent declining growth rates. Current pricing near $439,000 represents more than triple the 2010 baseline, creating substantial mathematical vulnerability to correction.
Sheridan – Denver Metro Suburb With Extreme Appreciation
Sheridan is a small city surrounded by the Denver metropolitan area, benefiting from urban proximity while maintaining distinct community character. The town’s extraordinary 239.8% price appreciation since 2010 reflects the broader Denver housing boom, but current levels appear unsustainable relative to local economic fundamentals. The transformation from a working-class community to a market with median prices approaching $440,000 illustrates the displacement pressures affecting Denver-area suburbs.
The recent momentum loss in 2025, following previous volatility, suggests the market is reaching saturation at current price levels. Sheridan’s appeal as an affordable Denver alternative has been compromised by rapid appreciation that now prices out many traditional buyers. The combination of extreme overextension and demonstrated volatility patterns creates high probability of significant correction, particularly if Denver-area employment or economic conditions deteriorate.
7. Nunn – Crash Risk Percentage: 77%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 77%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 3
- Worst historical crash: -6.04% (2011)
- Total price increase since 2010: +182.8%
- Overextended above long-term average: 117.6%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 7.5%
- Current May 2025 price: $489,991
Nunn enters extreme crash risk territory with a 77% probability, reflecting severe overextension at 117.6% above historical trends and clear momentum loss in 2025. The town’s 182.8% appreciation since 2010 has created unsustainable pricing for this rural Weld County community. Recent price declines and the pattern of three historical crashes suggest high vulnerability to significant correction.
Nunn – Rural Weld County Community With Severe Overextension
Nunn is a small agricultural community in Weld County that has experienced dramatic price appreciation far exceeding what local economic conditions can support. The town’s 182.8% growth since 2010 has pushed median prices near $490,000, creating extraordinary premiums for this rural location. The severe overextension of 117.6% above historical trends represents one of the most mathematically unsustainable situations in our analysis.
The community’s economy remains tied to agriculture and energy sectors, which provide limited support for such elevated housing costs. Nunn’s recent momentum loss in 2025, following a pattern of three previous crashes, suggests the market is rejecting current price levels. The combination of extreme rural location, limited economic diversification, and severe mathematical overextension creates conditions for potentially dramatic correction if buyer demand continues to weaken or economic conditions deteriorate.
6. Clifton – Crash Risk Percentage: 82%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 82%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 3
- Worst historical crash: -14.96% (2011)
- Total price increase since 2010: +151.5%
- Overextended above long-term average: 92.8%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 12.2%
- Current May 2025 price: $1,359,894
Clifton presents extreme crash risk at 82% probability, combining severe overextension with a history of dramatic volatility including a devastating 14.96% crash in 2011. The town’s current median price exceeding $1.35 million represents extreme appreciation that appears disconnected from this western slope community’s economic fundamentals. High volatility ratings and demonstrated momentum loss create substantial correction potential.
Clifton – Grand Junction Area With Luxury Market Vulnerability
Clifton operates as an upscale residential area near Grand Junction, attracting buyers seeking luxury properties in Colorado’s western region. The community’s 151.5% appreciation since 2010 has pushed median prices above $1.35 million, creating one of the most expensive markets outside traditional ski resort areas. However, this pricing appears unsustainable given the limited high-income employment opportunities in the Grand Junction metropolitan area.
The town’s extreme volatility rating of 12.2% and history of severe crashes, including the devastating 14.96% decline in 2011, demonstrates the market’s instability at elevated price levels. Clifton’s current momentum loss in 2025, combined with 92.8% overextension above historical trends, suggests buyer resistance to these premium levels. The luxury market’s dependence on discretionary wealth makes it particularly vulnerable to economic shifts, creating high probability of significant correction.
5. Dacono – Crash Risk Percentage: 82%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 82%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 3
- Worst historical crash: -8.10% (2011)
- Total price increase since 2010: +175.6%
- Overextended above long-term average: 96.0%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 11.7%
- Current May 2025 price: $268,753
Dacono matches the extreme 82% crash risk despite more modest absolute pricing, reflecting severe mathematical overextension at 96% above historical trends and concerning volatility patterns. The town’s 175.6% appreciation since 2010 has created unsustainable pricing even at current levels near $269,000. High volatility and momentum loss in 2025 suggest significant vulnerability to correction.
Dacono – Weld County Oil Town With Boom-Bust Patterns
Dacono has historically served as a small oil and gas community in Weld County, subject to the cyclical nature of energy sector employment. The town’s 175.6% price appreciation since 2010 coincided with Colorado’s oil and gas boom, but current levels appear unsustainable as the energy sector faces ongoing volatility. The median price near $269,000, while modest compared to resort areas, represents significant overextension for this working-class community.
The community’s high volatility rating of 11.7% reflects its dependence on energy sector cycles, which can dramatically affect local employment and housing demand. Dacono’s 96% overextension above historical trends, combined with momentum loss in 2025, suggests the market is struggling to maintain current levels. The combination of sector-specific economic exposure and mathematical overextension creates substantial downside risk if energy employment continues to fluctuate or decline significantly.
4. Eagle – Crash Risk Percentage: 85%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 85%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -4.49% (2023)
- Total price increase since 2010: +181.7%
- Overextended above long-term average: 119.5%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 7.1%
- Current May 2025 price: $572,275
Eagle reaches critical crash risk levels at 85% probability, driven by extreme overextension at 119.5% above historical trends and clear momentum loss patterns in 2025. The town’s 181.7% appreciation since 2010 has pushed median prices above $572,000, creating affordability challenges despite Eagle’s mountain community appeal. Recent volatility and mathematical overextension suggest imminent correction potential.
Eagle – Vail Valley Gateway With Critical Overextension
Eagle serves as a gateway community to the Vail Valley, attracting buyers seeking mountain lifestyle access at relatively lower costs than premier ski resorts. The town’s 181.7% price appreciation since 2010 reflects growing demand for mountain properties, but current levels appear critically overextended relative to local economic fundamentals. The median price exceeding $572,000 represents a substantial premium for this working community that traditionally housed service workers for nearby ski areas.
The community’s 119.5% overextension above historical trends ranks among the most severe mathematical disconnects in our analysis. Eagle’s momentum loss in 2025, following previous volatility including a 4.49% decline in 2023, suggests buyer resistance at these elevated levels. The combination of extreme overvaluation and recent market weakness creates conditions for potentially severe correction, particularly given the discretionary nature of mountain property purchases and sensitivity to broader economic conditions.
3. Gypsum – Crash Risk Percentage: 89%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 89%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -11.81% (2011)
- Total price increase since 2010: +161.1%
- Overextended above long-term average: 118.3%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 8.8%
- Current May 2025 price: $1,356,038
Gypsum approaches maximum crash risk at 89% probability, combining severe overextension at 118.3% above historical trends with a median price exceeding $1.35 million. The town’s history includes an extreme 11.81% crash in 2011, demonstrating vulnerability to sharp corrections. Current momentum loss in 2025 and mathematical overextension create conditions for potentially devastating price declines.
Gypsum – Eagle County Resort Community With Maximum Risk
Gypsum occupies a strategic position in Eagle County’s resort corridor, serving as a more affordable alternative to Vail and Beaver Creek while maintaining mountain access. The community’s 161.1% appreciation since 2010 has transformed it into a luxury market with median prices above $1.35 million, fundamentally altering its character from a working-class mountain town. This dramatic transformation has created severe affordability displacement for traditional residents.
The town’s extreme overextension of 118.3% above historical trends, combined with demonstrated vulnerability to major crashes like the 11.81% decline in 2011, creates maximum correction potential. Gypsum’s momentum loss in 2025 suggests even wealthy buyers are becoming resistant to current price levels. The combination of luxury market dynamics, extreme mathematical overextension, and proven crash history makes Gypsum one of Colorado’s most vulnerable housing markets.
2. Avon – Crash Risk Percentage: 90%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 90%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -2.86% (2011)
- Total price increase since 2010: +115.1%
- Overextended above long-term average: 111.6%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 9.2%
- Current May 2025 price: $507,725
Avon reaches near-maximum crash risk at 90% probability, driven by extreme overextension at 111.6% above historical trends and concerning momentum patterns. Despite more modest historical crashes, the town’s mathematical overextension and current pricing above $507,000 create substantial vulnerability. The combination of resort market dynamics and severe overvaluation suggests imminent correction potential.
Avon – Beaver Creek Base With Resort Market Vulnerability
Avon functions as the base village for Beaver Creek Resort, one of Colorado’s premier ski destinations, creating strong appeal for both primary and secondary residence buyers. The town’s 115.1% appreciation since 2010 reflects consistent demand for ski resort access, but the current median price exceeding $507,000 represents extreme overextension for this service-oriented community. The mathematical disconnect between pricing and local economic fundamentals has reached critical levels.
The community’s 111.6% overextension above historical trends ranks among the most severe overvaluations in our analysis, particularly concerning given Avon’s role as workforce housing for the broader Vail Valley. The momentum loss in 2025 suggests even resort market buyers are becoming price-sensitive at these levels. Resort markets typically demonstrate high volatility during economic downturns, and Avon’s extreme overextension creates vulnerability to sharp corrections if discretionary spending on recreational properties declines.
1. Edwards – Crash Risk Percentage: 94%
- Crash Risk Percentage: 94%
- Historical crashes (5%+ drops): 2
- Worst historical crash: -6.15% (2023)
- Total price increase since 2010: +117.8%
- Overextended above long-term average: 123.6%
- Price volatility (annual swings): 8.1%
- Current May 2025 price: $574,655
Edwards tops our crash risk analysis with a catastrophic 94% probability, reflecting the most extreme overextension at 123.6% above historical trends in our entire Colorado study. The town’s median price exceeding $574,000 represents maximum mathematical vulnerability, with clear momentum loss following the significant 6.15% crash in 2023. Current pricing appears completely disconnected from sustainable market fundamentals.
Edwards – Vail Valley Community With Maximum Crash Risk
Edwards serves as a residential community in the heart of the Vail Valley, positioned between Vail and Beaver Creek ski resorts. The town’s 117.8% appreciation since 2010 has created a median price exceeding $574,000, representing extreme overvaluation for this mountain community. The recent 6.15% crash in 2023, followed by continued momentum loss in 2025, demonstrates market instability at these elevated levels.
The community’s record-setting 123.6% overextension above historical trends represents the most mathematically unsustainable situation in our analysis. Edwards’ position as a working community within an ultra-luxury resort corridor creates fundamental contradictions between local employment opportunities and housing costs. The combination of maximum overextension, demonstrated crash vulnerability, and ongoing momentum loss creates near-certain conditions for significant price correction. Resort market dependencies and discretionary buyer behavior amplify downside risk during any economic uncertainty or shift in recreational property demand.
