Between 2018 and 2023, North Carolina’s housing market moved fast—and for families earning under $250,000 a year, the race to find an affordable home got tougher. Prices climbed steadily as demand surged, fueled at first by record-low mortgage rates. When rates rose later on, the frenzy cooled, but affordability remained a challenge.

Across cities and small towns alike, many buyers still aimed for traditional single-family homes, while others branched out to condos, townhouses, and manufactured homes to make the numbers work. Whether in Charlotte’s booming suburbs or along quieter coastal towns, navigating the market required quick decisions, flexible budgets, and, often, a willingness to rethink what “home” could look like.

Market Overview: Price Growth and Sales Activity

North Carolina experienced a housing market boom in the late 2010s and early 2020s with strong sales and rising prices, particularly during the pandemic. The statewide median home sale price jumped from about $201,000 in April 2020 to $302,500 in April 2023—an increase of around 50% in just three years. Even as of 2023, prices were still rising year-over-year (up ~4.4% from 2022).

Median home sale prices in NC rose 63.4% from January 2019 to December 2023, whereas overall consumer prices rose only ~22% in that same span. This means buying a home became much less affordable for the average family over that time.

Sales Activity Fluctuations

Home sales activity fluctuated significantly during this period. Before the pandemic, North Carolina’s housing market was already busy with steady job growth and migration into the state. When COVID-19 hit in 2020, homebuying paused briefly, then surged. Ultra-low mortgage rates and new remote-work opportunities in 2020–2021 led to a homebuying frenzy.

By spring 2023, statewide home sales were 22.5% lower than in April 2022, and new listings were about 4.8% lower than the year before. This decline in sales wasn’t because demand disappeared—it reflected affordability challenges and lack of inventory.

Inventory Challenges

Despite the slowdown in 2022–2023, housing inventory remained quite low in North Carolina. A balanced market typically has around six months of supply, but in April 2023 NC had only about 3.2 months of inventory available. For moderately priced homes—those under $250K that are most relevant for our income group—supply was even tighter at only about 2 months of inventory for homes priced $125,000–$249,999.

The Impact of Migration

North Carolina became one of the top destinations for people relocating from other states. In 2022, the state was #2 in the nation for inbound moves (behind only South Carolina), with about 64% of moves being people coming into NC rather than leaving. The Raleigh-Durham area was particularly attractive—Raleigh was ranked the #1 city in the U.S. for attracting new residents in 2022.

Many newcomers came for jobs in tech, finance, and other growing industries, or simply for the lower cost of living compared to places like New York or California. This steady inflow of new residents added fuel to the housing market. With limited houses available, it remained a seller’s market throughout 2018–2023.

Effects of Mortgage Rates and Inflation

The Roller Coaster of Mortgage Rates

One of the biggest factors shaping homebuying in 2018–2023 was the wild ride in mortgage interest rates:

2018–2019: Moderate Rates

Rates were around 4%–5% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. In 2018 the average 30-year rate was about 4.54%, then it dipped to ~3.94% in 2019. These moderate rates helped buyers by keeping monthly payments reasonable.

2020–2021: Record Lows

Rates plunged to historic lows. By July 2020, the typical 30-year mortgage rate fell below 3% for the first time ever, hitting an all-time low around 2.65% in January 2021. Throughout 2021, rates averaged under 3%. These ultra-low rates made it possible to afford a higher-priced home for the same monthly payment.

2022–2023: Sharp Increases

The trend reversed dramatically. The average 30-year mortgage rate shot up from about 3.2% in January 2022 to around 7.1% by late October 2022—the fastest increase in decades. By mid-2023, rates were hovering in the 6%–7% range. This rapid rise had a cooling effect on the housing market. Many would-be buyers suddenly found that homes they could afford in 2021 were now out of reach.

Inflation’s Additional Pressures

General inflation picked up in 2021–2022, reaching about 9% at its peak. Families earning under $250K felt the squeeze of rising prices for gas, groceries, and other essentials, making it harder to save for down payments or to afford monthly housing costs.

Construction materials and labor costs also jumped significantly. Construction costs in NC were roughly 30% higher in 2023 than five years before. The combination of expensive building costs and strong demand meant that few new homes were built at “starter” price points—builders focused on higher-end homes where they could recoup costs.

Home Types and Preferences

Single-Family Dominance

For households under $250K in income, single-family detached houses remained by far the most popular choice in 2018–2023. According to Zillow’s consumer housing survey, about 77% of buyers purchase a single-family detached home. North Carolina has many suburban and rural areas where traditional houses with yards are common, and most families prefer a standalone home if they can afford it.

Alternative Housing Types

Townhomes and condos became important options, especially as prices rose. Zillow’s data shows townhouses/rowhouses account for roughly 7% of home purchases nationally. In fast-growing urban areas like Charlotte and Raleigh, many developers built townhome communities that were somewhat more affordable than single-family homes in the same location.

Manufactured Housing Solutions

Manufactured homes (mobile homes) represent a significant segment of affordable housing in North Carolina. These factory-built houses are typically much cheaper than site-built homes, making them an important option for lower-income rural families. North Carolina actually has one of the highest numbers of mobile homes in the country, along with Texas and Florida.

During 2018–2023, manufactured homes continued to be a significant part of home purchases for those who couldn’t afford rising site-built home prices. Southern states like North Carolina led in new manufactured home shipments each year in this period. Nationwide, manufactured homes made up roughly 11% of new single-family housing starts in 2022, indicating growing interest as other housing became less affordable.

Buyer Demographics and Strategies

First-Time Buyers and the Challenges They Faced

Many households under $250K income in NC are young families or professionals buying their first home. In the late 2010s, millennials were entering their prime homebuying years. Early in this period, first-timers were active, taking advantage of decent affordability.

In 2020–2021, low interest rates enabled more first-time buyers to purchase homes they couldn’t have afforded before. However, the intense competition meant many first-timers had to bid against older or cash-rich buyers. By 2022, the share of first-time homebuyers dropped to the lowest level in decades—only 26% of homebuyers in 2022 were first-timers, down from 34% the year before.

Move-Up Buyers and Upsizing

Alongside first-timers, many buyers under $250K income were existing homeowners looking to upgrade to a larger or newer home. During 2018–2021, move-up buyers had a great opportunity—they often had equity in their current home and could use low interest rates to afford a bigger next home.

Many such households took the plunge to upsize, selling their smaller house (often at a nice profit) and buying a more spacious one. Real estate agents noted a lot of growing families moving from townhouses or 3-bedroom homes into 4-5 bedroom homes in the suburbs during the pandemic era.

However, by 2022–2023, upsizing became harder because of interest rate increases—some homeowners felt “locked in” by their low rates and chose to stay put rather than take out a new mortgage at a higher rate.

The Baby Boomer Effect: Downsizing and Relocations

A notable group of buyers in this period were older households (often Baby Boomers) downsizing or relocating. National data shows that by 2022, Baby Boomers actually became the largest generation of homebuyers (39% of buyers), surpassing millennials.

In NC, we saw boomers moving both within the state and from out of state to retire here. When they bought in NC, they often paid cash or had large down payments, making them formidable buyers. About 45% of home sellers in recent years were boomers, and those in the 69–77 age range were the most likely to buy a smaller home after selling.

Vacation Homes: Boom and Bust

A unique trend in 2020–2021 was a surge in vacation home buying. The pandemic made remote work common and allowed people with means to spend more time in leisure locations. North Carolina, with its beautiful mountains and beaches, saw increased interest in second homes.

Coastal towns (like the Outer Banks and Wilmington area) and mountain communities (around Asheville, Boone, etc.) experienced a boom in sales. Nationally, the share of vacation-home purchases jumped to about 6.7% of all existing-home sales in early 2021, up from 5% in 2019.

However, this trend reversed once rates rose. By 2023, U.S. vacation home sales had cooled dramatically, down nearly 75% from their pandemic peak.

Regional Patterns Across North Carolina

Triangle Area (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill)

The Triangle was one of the hottest markets in the state. This region’s strong job growth in tech, research, and universities attracted many new residents. By mid-2023, inventory in parts of the Triangle was extremely low—Durham County had 37% fewer listings in June 2023 than a year before.

Families under $250K in this region often had to look at towns further out (like Johnston or Franklin County) for affordable options. Overall, the Triangle was a high-demand, tight-supply market.

Charlotte Metro

Charlotte, the largest city, had a similar boom. As a finance and banking hub, it drew many newcomers and had steady job gains. In 2021, Charlotte was one of the top three U.S. cities for investor home purchases, which means regular buyers often faced investor competition.

For households under $250K income, areas to the north and west of Charlotte (like Gaston County or farther-out suburbs) provided somewhat more affordable homes. Median prices in Charlotte remained higher than the state average (the Charlotte metro median was in the $380K+ range in 2023).

Triad (Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point)

The Triad region had more moderate growth compared to Raleigh or Charlotte. This area’s economy is a bit more traditional and not as fast-growing, so home prices, while rising, stayed more affordable. By 2024 the Winston-Salem area’s inventory had grown to about 2.3 months’ supply, which, while low, was a bit better than other metros.

A family earning $80K in the Triad could still find a 3-bedroom house in a decent neighborhood for under $250K in many cases, something that became very difficult in Raleigh.

Coastal Areas

North Carolina’s coast saw a mix of primary and secondary home demand. Beach communities had the vacation home surge discussed earlier, which drove up prices particularly in 2020–2021. Towns in the Outer Banks saw double-digit annual price increases.

By 2023, coastal markets cooled somewhat—sales volume fell after the frenzy, and inventory improved. But prices generally remained high because the supply of homes on barrier islands or close to the beach is limited by geography.

Mountains and Western NC

The Asheville area and mountain counties also experienced robust demand. Asheville is known for its scenic beauty and livability, which attracted remote workers and retirees alike. Home prices in Asheville are among the highest in the state (the median in Asheville was around $350K–$400K in 2023).

Western NC has limited housing stock (lots of protected land and steep terrain), so when demand spiked, prices jumped quickly. By the end of 2023, western NC’s market calmed slightly as some second-home buyers retreated, but it was still a sought-after region.

Comparison: 2018–2023 vs. 2008–2017

Price Trajectories

From 2008 to around 2012, home prices in North Carolina were flat or declining due to the housing bust. Overall, the price growth in 2008–2017 was moderate. NC’s median existing home price in 2008 was roughly in the $160Ks and by 2017 it was about $204K. That’s roughly a 25% increase over a decade, nothing like the 63% increase seen just from 2019 to 2023.

For buyers under $250K income, the earlier decade offered a gentler climb in prices. Housing was generally more affordable in the early 2010s because prices had reset after the crash.

Mortgage Rate Environment

The late 2000s and 2010s saw declining mortgage rates, but not the extremes of the 2020s. In 2008, 30-year mortgage rates were around 6%. After the Federal Reserve cut rates during the recession, mortgages became cheaper—by 2012–2013, rates were in the 3-4% range.

This long period of generally low and stable rates meant affordability improved through the 2010s, even as home prices crept up. Compared to 2018–2023, the rate environment was far more predictable—there was no sudden spike like in 2022.

Competition and Inventory

In 2008–2017, because of the crash, investors did buy homes, but mostly in the early 2010s snapping up foreclosures at low prices. By the mid-2010s, investors were less of a factor than they became in 2021.

The competition in the early 2010s was actually quite low—it was a buyer’s market around 2010 with plenty of homes and few buyers. Gradually it shifted to a balanced market by 2015 and a slight seller’s market by 2017. But nothing like the intense seller’s market of 2021.

In that earlier period, a buyer under $250K income often could take their time, look at multiple houses, and even negotiate price or ask for seller-paid closing costs.

Conclusion

Between 2018 and 2023, North Carolina’s homebuying landscape for households earning under $250K saw dramatic shifts. What began as a healthy, growing market transformed during the pandemic into a red-hot arena of escalating prices and intense competition, before cooling off as interest rates climbed.

Compared to the previous decade, the recent period was far more challenging for buyers in many ways, requiring flexibility, creativity, and sometimes tough compromises. Yet, the enduring appeal of North Carolina—its strong job growth, lower cost of living than many states, and high quality of life—meant that demand for homes stayed high.

As of the end of 2023, the frenzy of the pandemic housing boom had subsided, but NC’s housing market remained buoyant and undersupplied, with prices stabilizing at a new higher normal. Households earning under $250K continue to be the backbone of the market, and their experiences over 2018–2023 reflect both the opportunities and challenges of an extraordinary time in real estate.

References

1. Construction Cost Increases and the Impact on Housing Affordability – North Carolina Housing Finance Agency (NCHFA)
2. North Carolina Housing Market 2023: Trends & House Prices – Nasdaq (Advisor/Forbes)
3. Buyers: Results from the Zillow Consumer Housing Trends Report – Zillow Research
4. U.S. States Investing Most in Manufactured Housing [2024 Edition] – Construction Coverage (via SFGate)
5. Number of mobile homes in the U.S. 2023, by state – Statista
6. Baby Boomers Overtake Millennials as Largest Generation of Home Buyers – National Association of REALTORS® (NAR)
7. Vacation Home Sales Surges During Pandemic – National Association of REALTORS®
8. U.S. Second Home Sales Slide in Pandemic-era Vacation Hot Spots – Reuters (Yahoo Finance)
9. Real Estate Investors Are Buying a Record Share of U.S. Homes – Redfin News
10. Mortgage Rate History: 1970s to 2025 – Bankrate/TheMortgageReports (Freddie Mac data)
11. State of the Nation’s Housing 2024 Report: What Does it Mean for North Carolina? – NCHFA (Harvard JCHS)
12. 2023 Manufactured Housing Facts – Manufactured Housing Institute
13. The share of homes bought by investors in North Carolina shrinks – Axios Raleigh
14. North Carolina’s Housing Shortage – ncIMPACT Initiative
15. HUD User: Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis for Winston-Salem – HUD User on Twitter