Hawaii’s housing market from 2018–2023 was shaped by surging prices, shifting buyer demographics, and historically low interest rates followed by rapid increases. For “budget-conscious” local households earning under $250,000 per year, purchasing a primary residence during this period required flexibility in home type, creative financing, and often, family support.
Types of Homes Purchased: Condos, Townhomes and Small Houses
Many moderate-income Hawaii buyers gravitated toward condominiums and townhomes, which offered relatively lower price points than single-family homes. On Oʻahu, the median condominium price was around $453,000 in 2019, rising to about $587,000 by 2022. In contrast, the median single-family home price statewide topped $850,000 by 2022, with Oʻahu and Maui hovering around or above the $1 million mark.
With such a gap, condos often represented the entry-level option for young families and first-time buyers. Townhomes were also popular as a middle ground – offering more space than high-rise condos but at prices below stand-alone houses.
Single-family homes were still the goal for many, especially those with growing families. However, buyers under $250k income often had to compromise on location or size. Many purchased older homes in more remote or suburban neighborhoods, or smaller “starter” houses. Multi-generational living arrangements allowed some families to pool resources and purchase larger single-family homes together. Hawaii has the highest rate of multigenerational households in the nation (around 8–9% of households), a trend driven by the high cost of housing.
Condos and townhomes predominated for first-time buyers and singles. During 2018–2019, condo sales were strong and even outnumbered single-family sales statewide. In 2020–2021, historically low interest rates enabled some upwardly-mobile buyers to jump from condos to single-family homes, but by 2022–2023, high rates and record prices pushed many back toward condos again. 2021 was a frenzied year: statewide condo sales jumped 58% from 2020.
Buyer Movement Patterns
Whether buyers upsized, downsized, or made lateral moves depended largely on their life stage:
First-time Buyers
First-time buyers (often millennials) were typically upsizing from rentals or family homes into ownership. For many, that meant starting small – buying a condo or modest townhome. In Honolulu, millennial buyers purchased homes with a median price about 4% lower than the overall market median, indicating they seek out cheaper options. Their median income also trailed older buyers, so younger buyers often had to settle for less space.
Growing Families
Growing families in the middle of the income range often tried to upsize – for example, moving from a starter condo to a larger townhome or single-family house as children arrived. Between 2018 and 2021, low interest rates made these moves more attainable. Some households leveraged the equity gains from their condos (which appreciated ~30% during the pandemic boom) as a down payment on a larger home. However, by 2022–2023, upsizing became harder as mortgage rates spiked and prices stayed high.
Retirees
Older homeowners and retirees were often downsizing, especially on Oʻahu. Many long-time Oʻahu residents approaching retirement sold large family houses and moved into smaller condos. Nearly 46% of Baby Boomer homebuyers nationwide in 2021 moved to a smaller home than their previous one. In Hawaii, an empty-nest couple in their 60s might sell a 4-bedroom in suburban Mililani and buy a 2-bedroom condo in urban Honolulu. Downsizing appealed for both financial and practical reasons – sellers could free up home equity and reduce maintenance burdens.
Lateral Movements
Lateral moves were less common but did occur. Some buyers sold one property and bought another of similar size due to job relocations or personal preferences. One notable lateral trend was Oʻahu residents relocating to neighbor islands. During 2018–2023, even as Oʻahu lost population, neighbor island counties saw net in-migration of older adults. A Honolulu family might sell a condo in the city and use the proceeds to buy a comparable or larger home on the Big Island or Kauaʻi.
Regional Patterns: Island-by-Island Differences
Homebuying trends varied significantly by island.
Oʻahu (Honolulu County)
Oʻahu is the state’s urban center, with the highest population and a large share of condominiums. During 2018–2023, median single-family home prices on Oʻahu rose from the mid-$700,000s to well over $1 million. This put most single-family homes out of reach for households under $250K without substantial savings or dual incomes. As a result, Oʻahu buyers in this income range heavily favored condos, townhomes, or older houses on the west and central parts of the island. Data from 2021 shows that 85% of homes on Oʻahu were purchased by local (Hawaii) residents.
Neighbor Islands
The less populous islands have lower median prices in many areas but also see a greater influence of out-of-state buyers. On the Big Island (Hawaii County), the median single-family price is markedly lower (around $400,000 in recent years), which attracted some budget-conscious local buyers willing to relocate or commute. Retirees and remote workers have been moving to the Big Island for its lower costs and relaxed lifestyle.
Maui County (which includes Maui, Molokaʻi, and Lānaʻi) has had some of the state’s highest appreciation and a high portion of investment purchases. Mainland and foreign buyers accounted for roughly 47% of Maui’s home sales in 2021 by number. In terms of dollar volume, outsiders made an even bigger impact (buying high-end resort properties). This dynamic meant local Maui residents were competing in a tight market with outside wealth.
Urban vs. Rural Differences
Even within the same island, urban and rural trends diverged. On Oʻahu, the urban core (Honolulu) is dominated by condos and saw younger professionals buying smaller units to be close to jobs. In contrast, Oʻahu’s more rural communities (North Shore, West Oʻahu) saw families buying old plantation-style houses or townhomes, often favoring space over commute convenience.
On the Big Island, Hilo had more condo and townhouse developments suitable for first-time buyers, whereas the rural districts attracted very low-budget buyers – including those willing to build their own homes or live off-grid on agricultural land. The USDA rural home loan program (which offers zero-down financing) was utilized in some of these outlying areas.
Hawaii’s geography also means that “second-home” buying by non-residents often concentrates in particular regions – for example, beachfront resort areas on Maui, Kauaʻi, and west Oʻahu. While our focus is primary residences, out-of-state investment and vacation-home purchases reduced inventory for local buyers. Statewide in 2021, locals bought about 76% of all homes, down from 78% in 2019 – indicating a rising share of outside buyers.
Mortgage and Financing: The Rollercoaster Years
Interest Rate Volatility
The period saw a dramatic swing in mortgage rates. In 2018, 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged about 4.5% and hovered around 3.9% in 2019. By late 2020 and into 2021, rates plummeted below 3% – an unprecedented low. These historically low rates significantly boosted affordability: lower monthly payments allowed many under-$250K households to qualify for loans that might have been out of reach at higher rates.
However, the trend reversed sharply – by 2022, the average 30-year rate had jumped to 5.34%, and 2023 averaged around 6.8%. These increases caused monthly mortgage costs to balloon and priced out many marginal buyers. A household that might have qualified for a $800,000 loan at 3% could afford far less at 6%.
Loan Types
Conventional mortgages remained the most common financing for Hawaii home purchases, but government-backed loans were crucial for many in this income bracket. FHA loans, which allow as low as 3.5% down, served first-time buyers who lacked big down payments. Hawaii’s high home prices push FHA loan limits to their max (around $790k on Oʻahu in recent years).
VA loans were especially significant in Hawaii. The state has a large military presence, and changes in 2020 eliminated VA loan caps for those with full entitlement. The result was a boom: in mid-2020, VA home loans in Honolulu were up 206% year-over-year. Veterans capitalized on zero-down financing and low rates to enter Hawaii’s market.
USDA Rural Home Loans (which offer 100% financing in eligible rural areas) were valuable on the neighbor islands and parts of Oʻahu’s countryside. Qualifying households used USDA loans to buy homes in communities like Wahiawā (Oʻahu) or rural Hawaii Island, leveraging the no-down-payment feature.
The Refinance Boom and “Lock-In” Effect
The refinance boom of 2020–2021 swept through Hawaii. Homeowners who bought or refinanced at those low rates became “locked in” – reluctant to sell and give up their sub-3% mortgages. This impacted move-up buyers: some owners who might have sold their starter condo to upgrade are holding off, which limits inventory for new buyers.
Down Payments and Assistance Programs
Given Hawaii’s home prices, coming up with a down payment is a huge hurdle. A 20% down payment on a median-priced home could easily exceed $150,000 – unrealistic for many earning under $250k. As a result, low-down-payment loans and assistance programs were heavily utilized.
Many buyers put down 5–10% using conventional loans with private mortgage insurance. Others tapped first-time buyer programs: for example, the Hawaii Housing Finance and Development Corporation’s Hula Mae program offers below-market interest rates and down payment assistance. Counties provided aid too – Honolulu offers a Down Payment Loan up to $40,000 for qualifying buyers, Maui County up to $30,000, and Kauaʻi up to $150,000.
Affordability Gap
Despite these financing tools, the affordability gap remained stark. By 2022, a study found that to afford a median home in Hawaii (with 20% down at prevailing rates), a buyer needed an income about 180% of the state median (~$150,000/year). Many households in the under-$250k segment were dual-income professionals who could approach that threshold, but single-income families often fell short.
Buyer Demographics
Local Families
Dual-income families form the backbone of Hawaii’s middle class, and many fall under the $250k combined income mark. These include professionals like teachers, nurses, small business owners, and civil service employees. Throughout 2018–2023, such families sought stability through homeownership, especially if they had children.
They often leveraged family networks for childcare and housing. By one estimate, about 1 in 5 Hawaii residents lives in a multi-generational family home – a rate much higher than the rest of the country. This reflects not just cultural preferences but economic necessity: younger families might live with grandparents under one roof, allowing pooling of incomes to afford a mortgage.
Millennials and First-Time Buyers
Millennials faced steep challenges; many are first-generation homeowners in their families. The median income of millennial homebuyers was about $120,000 – within our target bracket, but in Hawaii that income often still wasn’t enough for a single-family home. Thus, most millennial buyers targeted condos or townhomes. They also tended to purchase in more affordable neighborhoods or peripheral regions.
Many millennial buyers in Hawaii are also first- or second-generation immigrants (particularly Filipino, Japanese, and Pacific Islander families) whose cultural emphasis on family support helped – parents or relatives might contribute funds for down payment or serve as co-signers on loans.
Military Personnel and Veterans
The military community is an important buyer group in Hawaii given the presence of Pearl Harbor, Hickam, Schofield Barracks, and other bases. Military families often have moderate incomes (enlisted personnel) or upper-middle incomes (officers), and they benefited greatly from VA loan access.
Many younger service members purchased their first home in Hawaii using VA financing during 2018–2021’s low-rate environment, sometimes with the intent to keep the property as a rental when they moved on.
Retirees (Local and Mainland)
Retirees in the under-$250k income range include many longtime Hawaii residents on fixed incomes as well as mainland retirees who aren’t “rich” per se but have substantial home equity from selling property on the mainland. Local retirees often owned their homes outright (benefiting from having bought decades ago when prices were far lower).
A number of retirees from the U.S. mainland chose to downsize and relocate to Hawaii in this period, drawn by the lifestyle. Even if their annual income was modest, they might have sold a house in California and brought $500k–$1M cash to buy in Hawaii. This group contributed to demand for condos in resort-like settings and helped drive up prices in retiree-friendly markets.
Affordability Programs and Policy Initiatives
To address the affordability gap, various local and federal programs were available and increasingly utilized:
State Programs
The state’s Hawaii Housing Finance and Development Corporation (HHFDC) administers several initiatives for first-time and low-/moderate-income buyers. The Hula Mae Home Loan program offered qualifying Hawaii residents below-market interest rates and optional down payment assistance up to 3% of the purchase price.
HHFDC also allocated Mortgage Credit Certificates (MCCs), which give a federal tax credit (up to $2,000 per year) equal to 20% of mortgage interest paid. An MCC effectively boosts take-home pay, helping buyers meet debt-to-income ratios.
County-Level Assistance
Each county in Hawaii had its own affordability initiatives. The City and County of Honolulu provided a Downpayment Loan Program offering up to $40,000 as a second mortgage at low interest, deferred for 20 years. Maui County and Kauaʻi County have similar down payment assistance loans/grants.
Affordable Housing Development
Hawaii’s government also tried to increase supply of affordable homes through inclusionary zoning and development of subsidized housing. In Honolulu, new condo projects in urban areas like Kakaʻako and Ala Moana included “reserved housing” units sold to local moderate-income buyers at below-market prices (with resale restrictions).
The Hawaii Community Development Authority reported nearly 1,000 affordable workforce housing units created in the Honolulu urban core by 2018. Similarly, Maui County in 2021 adopted a comprehensive affordable housing plan aiming to facilitate 5,000 affordable units in the next five years.
Comparing 2018-2023 to the Previous Decade
It’s insightful to compare the 2018–2023 homebuying trends with the prior decade (2008–2017):
Market Cycles
The 2008–2017 period began with a housing crash and ended with a steady recovery. Hawaii’s market saw price declines in 2008–2011. By around 2013, prices stabilized and began climbing again. Over that decade, price growth was relatively modest and linear compared to the explosive spike of the 2020s.
Honolulu’s average home price in 2010 was about $630,000 and reached ~$736,000 by 2017 – roughly a 3% annual increase. Contrast that with 2019–2022, when Oʻahu prices jumped ~35% in just three years.
Interest Rate Environment
2008–2017 was generally an era of falling or low interest rates as well, but without the same volatility. The Federal Reserve cut rates during the recession, bringing 30-year mortgage rates from ~6% in 2008 down to ~4% by 2012, and they mostly stayed in the 3–4% range through 2017.
What differed is stability: the prior decade did not experience the whiplash of dropping to 2.7% and then shooting to near 7% within a couple of years. In the earlier period, the rate fluctuations were gentler; affordability issues then were more about prices and incomes than about financing costs.
Buyer Psychology and Competition
Post-recession (around 2008–2012), many Hawaii buyers were actually investors snapping up foreclosures, or sidelined locals hesitant to buy until the market hit bottom. First-time buyers who had stable jobs in 2009–2011 found opportunities – aided by the 2008 federal First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit (up to $8,000).
By 2015–2017, Hawaii’s market had heated up again, but bidding wars were not as frenzied as the 2021 peak. Come 2021, it was common for desirable Oʻahu homes to receive dozens of offers and sell well above asking. The pandemic introduced a mindset shift: historically low inventory and rock-bottom rates created a sense of urgency unlike the previous decade.
Population and Homeownership Trends
Hawaii’s homeownership rate increased slightly from 2008 to 2017 – the state homeownership rate was about 58.5% in 2010, rising to 58.9% by 2017. This could indicate that some renters took advantage of the post-recession conditions to become owners. In contrast, by 2023 Hawaii’s homeownership was roughly flat or down (about 58–59%).
Furthermore, the 2008–2017 decade saw Hawaii’s population grow (albeit slowly) up until around 2016. The 2018–2023 period was marked by population stagnation or decline – 2017 and 2018 were the first years Hawaii ever saw a net population loss, and this trend continued, with more residents moving to the mainland for cheaper housing.
Hawaii vs. Mainland Comparisons
Price Disparities
Hawaii consistently ranks as the most expensive state for housing. As of 2023, the average home price in Hawaii was about $828,000 – roughly $70,000 higher than California, the next highest state. While the 2020–2022 price boom was a nationwide phenomenon, Hawaii’s already high base magnified the impact.
Mainland markets also have more variation – buyers priced out of coastal California could move to Texas or Arizona. In Hawaii, moving to a cheaper state means leaving the state entirely. Hawaii’s isolated geography means local buyers don’t have an in-state cheaper metro to move to (except between islands).
Interest Rate Impact
Mainland and Hawaii buyers both felt the squeeze of rising rates in 2022. One difference is that Hawaii’s prices made the monthly payment spikes more dramatic in dollar terms. A $300k mainland mortgage vs. a $700k Hawaii mortgage – the rate doubling from ~3% to ~6% would add a few hundred dollars to the former, but over a thousand dollars to the latter.
Investor Influence
Mainland states also dealt with investor buying during the 2018–2023 run-up. In Hawaii, institutional investors are less of a factor, but second-home investors are a long-standing presence. Many homes are bought as vacation rentals or future retirement homes.
Whereas a first-time buyer in Denver competes mostly with other locals, a first-time buyer in Honolulu could be competing with a doctor in L.A. buying a second condo. The Title Guaranty data for 2021 showed out-of-state buyers accounted for 24% of Hawaii’s home purchases that year, and an even larger chunk of the high-end purchases.
Conclusion
From 2018 through 2023, budget-conscious Hawaii households navigated a rollercoaster housing market. They primarily bought condos and modest homes, made strategic decisions about sizing up or down, and took advantage of historically low interest rates while they lasted.
Regional differences were stark: Oʻahu’s dense condo market contrasted with neighbor islands where mainland money loomed larger. Mortgage trends – especially the boom in VA loans and the swing from 3% to 7% rates – heavily influenced who could buy and when.
Demographically, everyone from millennial first-timers to retiring Boomers participated, though not without sacrifices (be it settling for a smaller home or pooling family resources). A variety of affordability programs, from down payment loans to tax credits, provided lifelines and kept the door to homeownership open for some local buyers.
Comparatively, the five-year trends highlight greater volatility and pressure than the prior decade, intensifying the long-standing issue of affordability in paradise. In many ways, Hawaii’s experience encapsulated and amplified national trends – a microcosm where high demand meets limited supply, and where the dream of owning a home requires persistence and adaptation.
References
- The Hawai’i Housing Factbook – University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization
- Why Hawaii Trends Toward Large And Extended Families – Honolulu Civil Beat
- Priced Out: Millennials Buying Cheapest Homes in Hawaii – Hawaii Free Press
- Hawaii Is Seeing A Boom In Military-Backed Mortgages – Honolulu Civil Beat
- First-Time Homebuyer Programs in Hawaii – Redfin
- Interest Rate History 30 Year Fixed Rate – The Mortgage Reports
- United States 30-Year Mortgage Rate – Trading Economics
- House Prices by State – Real Estate Data Analysis – Self Financial
- 2020 Changes To VA Loan Benefit – Hawaii Life
