From the prairie towns to Fargo’s growing suburbs, North Dakota’s housing market shifted quickly between 2018 and 2023—especially for families watching their budgets. Prices rose nearly everywhere, even in areas once considered reliably affordable. For a brief window, record-low interest rates gave many first-time buyers a shot at homeownership. But by 2022, rising mortgage costs and tight inventory reversed those gains.
These shifts played out differently in urban and rural parts of the state, with some families stretching for more space and others choosing to downsize. Oil booms, pandemic disruptions, and policy changes all left their mark. Compared to the previous decade, it’s clear: the path to buying a home in North Dakota now looks very different.
Urban Housing Market Trends
Rising Prices in Cities
North Dakota’s cities experienced rising home prices and strong buyer demand from 2018 to 2023. In the state’s 12 largest cities (including Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks, Minot, West Fargo, and others), the average sale price of homes climbed significantly. The average home price in 2020 ranged from about $158,000 in Valley City up to $307,000 in West Fargo.
Fargo and Bismarck, the two largest urban areas, saw median sale prices in the mid to upper $200,000s by 2020, and these medians have since pushed into the $300,000+ range by 2023. By early 2025, Bismarck’s median home price was around $330,000, reflecting the general upward trend through 2023. All of North Dakota’s major cities experienced at least a 47% increase in sale prices from 2010 to 2020, and prices kept rising after 2018.
Strong Urban Demand
Despite higher prices, demand in urban markets was strong. Homes in cities tended to sell relatively quickly, especially during the post-2020 housing boom. In the Fargo area, the market was considered “balanced” around 2018–2019 with low vacancy and solid sales, but by 2020–2021 it heated up further.
The average time a house stayed on the market in urban areas decreased each year after 2017, meaning homes were selling faster. In fact, by 2021 many homes in cities would go pending in just over a month on average. One exception was the very cheapest homes: houses priced under $150,000 in city markets sometimes took longer to sell, possibly because these older, lower-priced homes did not always meet buyers’ preferences (they might need repairs or updates).
Declining Affordable Inventory
Another trend in urban North Dakota was the decline in affordable listings. Back in 2012, about 77% of homes sold in the 12 largest cities were priced at $250,000 or less, but by 2021 that share fell to just 48%. In other words, less than half of homes sold in cities were in what many would consider an affordable price range by 2021.
Conversely, the portion of higher-end sales grew – houses priced above $350,000 rose from 6% of city sales in 2012 to 23% of sales in 2021. This shows how urban homebuyers with moderate budgets found fewer lower-cost options on the market as the years went on. Families earning middle incomes in places like Fargo or Bismarck often had to stretch their budgets for homes that, a decade earlier, would have been much cheaper.
Rural Housing Market Trends
Price Differences in Small Towns
In rural areas and small towns across North Dakota, housing trends differed from the big cities, yet there were still notable changes from 2018 to 2023. Generally, home prices in rural North Dakota are lower than in urban centers – for example, in 2020 the average home sale price in rural regions ranged from about $109,000 (in the Devils Lake region) up to $252,000 (in the Williston region).
However, rural areas have not been immune to price increases. In fact, from 2010 to 2020 many rural regions saw faster growth rates in home prices than the cities did. The most dramatic example is North Dakota’s oil-producing region in the northwest (around Williston). During the oil boom, that region’s average home price skyrocketed – increasing 372% between 2010 and 2020.
Rural Market Activity
From 2018 to 2023, rural housing markets continued to evolve. Population trends play a role: many rural counties in North Dakota have long-term population decline, but the late 2000s/early 2010s oil boom actually brought an influx of people to some western rural areas. By the late 2010s, that influx slowed as oil activity moderated, and some rural towns stabilized or lost population again.
Despite this, the years 2020–2021 brought a statewide surge in homebuying demand that also touched rural markets. One sign is that in 2020–2021 the average days on market for rural home listings dropped sharply, meaning houses in small towns were selling faster than before. Even though rural homes typically take longer to sell than city homes (due to a smaller buyer pool), the hot housing conditions during COVID-19 saw many rural homes getting snatched up quicker than usual across all price ranges.
Rural Affordability Challenges
Affordability in rural areas remained better than in cities, but it too worsened over time. In 2012, a full 91% of homes sold in rural North Dakota were priced at $250,000 or less, reflecting the generally lower costs. By 2021, that share had fallen to 69% of rural sales under $250k.
So while most homes sold in small towns were still under $250,000, the portion of higher-priced sales (above $250k) roughly tripled from 9% to 31% of rural sales between 2012 and 2021. This shift means that even in rural communities, truly inexpensive houses have become less common in the for-sale market.
Aging Housing Stock
One reason is that many of the houses in the lowest price category are very old and sometimes in poorer condition. Statewide data show that houses priced under $150,000 in North Dakota are on average 66 years old, versus about 16 years old for houses priced above $350,000.
In rural North Dakota, the cheapest homes are even older – about 72 years old on average (compared to ~61 years in the cities for that low tier). This aging housing stock in rural areas means budget-minded buyers often face a trade-off: the home’s price is lower, but it may need renovation or lack modern features.
Types of Properties Purchased
Single-Family Homes Dominate
By far the most common type of home purchased was the traditional single-family detached house. North Dakota’s housing stock is dominated by single-family houses – about 59% of all housing units are single-family detached homes. Most owner-occupying households live in this type of housing.
During 2018–2023, families continued to prefer buying single-family houses, whether in cities or small towns. These include everything from older starter homes in town to newer suburban-style houses. The prevalence of single-family home purchases is partly because there are simply more of them available than any other housing type.
Condos and Townhomes
Condominiums, townhouses, and other attached homes make up a smaller share of the market in North Dakota. They are more commonly found in urban areas like Fargo or Bismarck. Young professionals, some retirees, or smaller households might opt for condos or townhomes, especially to be close to city amenities or to avoid maintenance of a yard.
For example, in downtown Fargo there have been condo developments, and Bismarck has some townhome communities. However, these properties are not the majority of sales for budget-conscious buyers, as many moderate-income households in North Dakota still gravitate toward detached houses.
Mobile and Manufactured Homes
Mobile homes (also called manufactured homes) are another piece of the housing picture, typically serving as an affordable option. North Dakota has a number of mobile home parks and rural properties with manufactured homes. These dwellings tend to be cheaper to buy, which attracted some budget buyers, especially in areas where single-family home prices climbed beyond reach.
In the oil patch during the boom years, many workers lived in mobile units (though often those were temporary rentals). From 2018 to 2023, manufactured homes remained a small fraction of home purchases but an important option for some lower-income families. They are more common in rural areas or on the edges of cities.
Changing Household Needs
Upsizing Trends
Many North Dakotan households chose to upsize during this period, especially when conditions were favorable. Upsizing typically happens when a family grows (for example, when young couples start having children) or when a household’s income improves and they want more space or amenities.
The low mortgage interest rates in 2020–2021 made upsizing very attractive – families could afford a bigger or newer home with relatively low monthly payments. Some homeowners who had started with a small starter house in the early 2010s found by the late 2010s that they had built enough equity and savings to move into a larger home.
As incomes in North Dakota rose (the median family income grew by about 41% over the past decade up to 2020), those who could afford it often put that income toward a bigger home. Upsizing was a common trend for middle-class families while interest rates were low because it increased their quality of life (more bedrooms, a yard, home office space for remote work, etc.).
Downsizing Patterns
At the same time, another segment of the population was downsizing. Downsizing usually refers to older homeowners or “empty nesters” whose children have moved out, deciding to move into a smaller, more manageable home. In North Dakota, a significant portion of the population is over 65, and many have lived in big single-family homes for decades.
Between 2010 and 2020, the number of people 65 and older living in their own home (rather than moving to nursing homes) grew by 23%. This suggests a lot of seniors are aging in place – staying in their existing homes longer instead of downsizing right away. Nonetheless, some did choose to downsize during 2018–2023.
They might sell the old family house (which could be in need of repairs or simply too large to upkeep) and buy a smaller condo or a townhouse, often in the same community to stay near friends, medical facilities, and other support. The trend in North Dakota has been that downsizing is gradual – not a huge wave, but present.
Second Homes and Recreational Properties
Owning a second home is less common among households under $250,000 income, but it is worth noting any patterns. In North Dakota, second homes are often lake cabins or vacation properties. While North Dakota isn’t as famous for lake culture as neighboring Minnesota, there are areas (like Devils Lake or Lake Sakakawea) where people enjoy seasonal cabins.
During the pandemic years, there was a national uptick in second-home purchases by those who could afford them, taking advantage of low interest rates. In North Dakota, a subset of higher-earning “budget-conscious” families (perhaps closer to that upper range of income) did buy second properties. Overall, second homes remained a minor trend for in-state buyers, mostly limited to those with sufficient means.
The Affordable Housing Squeeze
Shrinking Supply of Lower-Priced Homes
One of the most important trends for budget-conscious buyers in North Dakota has been the shrinking supply of affordable houses for sale. Simply put, families looking for homes in the lower price ranges (which many moderate-income households need) have fewer choices now than they did years ago.
As noted earlier, in the larger cities the share of homes sold for $250,000 or less dropped from 77% in 2012 to only 48% by 2021. In rural areas it dropped from 91% to 69% over the same period. This indicates a statewide shift where lower-priced homes make up a smaller part of the market than before.
Quality and Age Issues
Houses that are in the affordable range tend to be older and may require updates. The average age of a home priced between $150k and $250k in North Dakota is nearly 50 years. For homes under $150k, the average age is over 60 years.
These older homes might lack modern insulation, have old furnaces or roofs, or not meet the preferences of today’s buyers (for example, smaller bathrooms or no attached garage). Some buyers on a budget are willing to take on these fixer-uppers, but many hesitate if the home will need a lot of repair money. Meanwhile, newer homes are usually priced higher. This creates a gap in the market: newer affordable starter homes are scarce, and older affordable homes might not be appealing or turn-key for buyers.
Income Constraints
A report by the North Dakota Housing Finance Agency pointed out that the market is tight and first-time buyers face challenges. It said that only workers in the state’s top three industries can easily afford the readily available homes, and high construction costs make it hard to add affordable new houses.
This is a critical insight: it means that many median-income earners (for example, working in education, retail, or lower-paying sectors) struggle to find homes in their price range, because a lot of what’s on the market is geared toward higher incomes or has become expensive due to demand and cost of building.
Declining Homeownership
The decline in homeownership rates across income groups is another consequence of these trends. As affordable inventory decreased and prices rose, fewer people in the low-to-moderate income brackets succeeded in buying homes. North Dakota’s overall homeownership rate was about 67% in 2010, but it fell to about 62% by 2020.
The drop was especially sharp among households earning in the $50k–$100k range – traditionally the middle class. Many of these families remained renters because they couldn’t find or afford a suitable home to buy. Data confirms that the homeownership rate declined for each income group in North Dakota by 2020, even though incomes were rising. High prices and limited affordable choices played a big role in that.
Key Market Influences
The Interest Rate Rollercoaster
One of the biggest influences on homebuying in 2018–2023 was the change in mortgage interest rates. In the late 2010s (2018–2019), mortgage rates were somewhat higher (around 4% to 5% for a 30-year fixed loan). Then, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, the Federal Reserve cut rates to stimulate the economy. As a result, 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to historic lows, roughly around 3% in 2020.
To put numbers on it: a North Dakota household earning around $80,000–$90,000 (lower-moderate income) could afford roughly a $354,000 home at a 3.1% interest rate, but only about a $279,000 home at a 6% interest rate. That’s a huge difference in purchasing power.
However, this situation reversed starting in late 2021 and especially in 2022. As inflation concerns grew, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and mortgage rates followed. By mid-2022, the 30-year mortgage rate had roughly doubled to around 6%. Later in 2022 and into 2023, rates even went above 6%, reaching around 7% at times nationally.
The impact of high interest rates in 2022–2023 can be seen in market activity. Fewer homes were sold as borrowing became expensive, and some sellers hesitated to list their homes since they didn’t want to give up their own low-rate mortgages (a phenomenon referred to as the “lock-in effect,” where existing homeowners stay put, limiting inventory).
Oil Industry’s Regional Impact
North Dakota’s economy is uniquely tied to the oil and gas industry, and changes in that sector strongly influenced homebuying trends, especially in certain regions. In the previous decade, North Dakota experienced an oil boom (roughly 2006–2014) due to the development of the Bakken shale oil fields. Towns like Williston, Dickinson, and Minot saw a flood of workers and investment.
By 2018–2019, oil prices and production had stabilized to a moderate level. The housing markets in the oil patch (e.g., Williston area) also stabilized. Home prices in Williston, for example, flattened or even dipped slightly around the mid-2010s, then started rising slowly again by 2018–2019.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sudden crash in oil demand in spring 2020. Oil prices briefly went extremely low, and North Dakota’s oil drilling activity plummeted. This could have been a crisis for the oil-region housing market (potential for another bust). Indeed, some oil workers were laid off or left when the pandemic hit, which might have increased vacancies in places like Williston. However, this downturn was fairly short-lived.
By late 2020 and into 2021, oil demand and prices picked up again. North Dakota’s oil towns likely felt some whiplash: a brief slowdown and then a bounce back. The housing trend in oil towns during 2021–2023 was gradual growth rather than explosive. Williston and Dickinson continued to see home sales and new construction but at a controlled pace.
COVID-19’s Transformative Effects
The COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021) was an unprecedented event that influenced homebuying behavior significantly. As discussed, the pandemic led to emergency interest rate cuts. For North Dakota homebuyers, 2020 and 2021 became a golden opportunity to buy or refinance with the cheapest financing in modern history.
The pandemic changed how people live – with lockdowns and remote work, homes suddenly doubled as offices, schools, and gyms. This made North Dakotans, like many Americans, reevaluate their space needs. Households that spent most of 2020 working and schooling from a small apartment or house often wanted a larger home or a yard.
The pandemic did have a downside effect on housing supply – it disrupted construction supply chains. Lumber prices skyrocketed in 2021, and contractors faced delays getting materials. This made building new homes more expensive and slower. Combined with the rush of buyers, this created something of a sellers’ market: more buyers chasing fewer listings.
North Dakota did not see a massive population influx due to COVID, but it likely retained and attracted some people. For example, alumni who had left the state might have moved back to North Dakota in 2020 to be closer to family or to have a less congested environment during the pandemic. Remote work allowed some North Dakotans who were working in other states to return home and work from there.
Comparing 2018–2023 to 2008–2017
Different Economic Drivers
The 2008–2017 period was largely defined by the oil boom and its aftermath. From roughly 2008 to 2014, North Dakota’s population and economy surged due to oil development. Housing construction in the oil region couldn’t keep up at first – prices there soared and vacancy was near zero around 2012–2013.
By contrast, 2018–2023’s big driver was the COVID-era housing boom (and low interest rates), which was a nationwide phenomenon. So while 2008–2014 had a North Dakota-specific boom (oil), 2020–2021 had a broader context (pandemic response) that also affected ND.
Market Stability Contrasts
The late 2000s included the Great Recession (2008–2009), which nationally caused a housing market crash. North Dakota, however, largely avoided a housing crash at that time because the oil boom was ramping up simultaneously. While states like California or Florida saw home values plummet after 2007, North Dakota’s home values held steady or even rose in the late 2000s, cushioned by the influx of oil money and jobs.
Fast-forward to 2022, North Dakota faced a different kind of challenge: rapidly rising interest rates (the highest since about 2007). While not a recession per se (though 2022 had recession fears), this rate spike cooled the housing market. In effect, North Dakota’s housing market in 2022–2023 slowed down, but didn’t crash.
Population and Construction Patterns
From 2008 to 2017, North Dakota’s population grew significantly (about 16% growth from 2010 to 2020, most of it in the early part of the decade). Many of the newcomers were younger workers. This actually lowered the homeownership rate somewhat because a lot of young, single workers initially rented or lived in temporary housing.
The 2008–2017 era saw a construction boom in North Dakota. Not only in the oil patch (lots of apartments, single-family homes, and temporary units built) but also in Fargo/West Fargo, Bismarck, and Minot. By contrast, 2018–2023 had a more constrained construction environment in the later years. Labor shortages (North Dakota’s unemployment was low) and high material costs limited how fast builders could respond to rising demand.
Conclusion
Homebuying trends in North Dakota from 2018 through 2023 show a market that became more challenging for budget-conscious households. Urban areas like Fargo and Bismarck saw prices rise to record levels, and rural areas, while cheaper, also experienced significant price growth.
The supply of affordable homes under $250,000 shrank over these years, making it harder for first-time and moderate-income buyers to find suitable options. Key factors shaped these outcomes: rock-bottom mortgage rates in 2020–21 spurred a buying frenzy, the oil industry’s boom-and-bust cycle particularly affected western North Dakota’s housing, and the COVID-19 pandemic changed housing needs and market dynamics in profound ways.
Compared to 2008–2017, the recent period had less of a localized oil-driven craze and more of a statewide surge tied to national trends, but both decades ended up with higher prices and fewer affordable choices than they began with. Overall, North Dakota’s housing market in 2018–2023 was robust but difficult for those on a strict budget. The trends highlight the importance of affordable housing initiatives and thoughtful development as the state moves forward, so that working families can continue to achieve the dream of homeownership in the Peace Garden State.
References
- Housing Market Conditions and Declining Homeownership Rates – North Dakota Compass (Feb 2023)
- 2022 North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment – NDSU Center for Social Research (2022)
- Current State of Housing in North Dakota – ND Housing Finance Agency (2024)
- North Dakota Housing Market: 2025 Home Prices & Trends – Zillow Research
- Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis for Fargo, ND – U.S. Dept. of HUD (2019)
- Bismarck Housing Market: House Prices & Trends – Redfin
