The “Silver Tsunami” refers to the wave of aging Baby Boomers (Americans born between 1946 and 1964) entering their senior years. This generation is huge – about 21% of the U.S. population – and they hold an outsized share of wealth and housing. As Boomers retire and age into their 70s and beyond, their housing decisions are having a major impact on the U.S. residential real estate market.
Demographers note that by 2030, all Baby Boomers will be at least 65 years old, and America’s senior population will reach new highs. This aging wave has big implications. Will there be a flood of homes for sale as Boomers transition out of their houses? Or will many age in place, reducing the number of homes available to buy?
One reason Boomers matter so much to housing is that they own a huge share of U.S. homes. Baby Boomers make up just about one-fifth of the population, but they account for over one-third of all homeowners. According to U.S. Census data, Americans over age 55 now own the majority of owner-occupied homes in the country.
In 2023, people 55 and older owned 54% of U.S. homes, up from 44% in 2008. This trend reflects how Boomers accumulated homes over the decades, while younger groups struggled to gain a foothold.
In total, Baby Boomers inhabit roughly 32 million owner-occupied homes nationwide. The housing wealth tied up in those homes is enormous – on the order of trillions of dollars. Many Boomers have paid off their mortgages over time and built up significant equity. In fact, more than half (54%) of Boomer homeowners have no mortgage at all, meaning their homes are fully paid off.
The Wealth Transfer: Housing Assets and Inheritance
This equity gives Boomers financial security and flexibility in deciding if or when to sell. It also means a lot of housing wealth will transfer to younger generations in coming years. Over the next two decades, Boomers are projected to pass down over $100 trillion in wealth to their heirs, with a big portion of that in real estate assets.
Boomers’ dominance in homeownership has even shown up in recent home-buying trends. In 2023, Baby Boomers surpassed millennials as the largest share of home buyers, making up 42% of all buyers (millennials fell to 29%). This is partly because Boomers, on average, have more resources – they can use accumulated home equity or cash savings to purchase homes, including second homes or retirement properties.
Regional Differences: Sunbelt, Rust Belt, and Coastal Trends
While the “silver tsunami” is a national phenomenon, its impact varies by region. Where Baby Boomers live and own homes differs across the country, leading to different regional housing trends.
Retirement Hotspots (Sunbelt and Coastal Leisure States)
Warm-weather states like Florida, Arizona, and Hawaii have attracted many retirees. These places have some of the highest concentrations of Boomer homeowners. For example, about 42% of homeowners in Florida are Baby Boomers. Delaware and Hawaii are also around the 40% mark, topping the nation.
In metropolitan areas such as Tucson, AZ and Tampa–St. Petersburg, FL, roughly 40% or more of all homeowners are Boomers. These Sunbelt regions are popular for their warm climate, lower taxes, or attractive lifestyle for seniors. The high demand from incoming retirees has boosted home prices and spurred construction of retirement communities in these areas.
Rust Belt and Rural Areas
In some older industrial metros and rural regions (often called the Rust Belt in the Northeast and Midwest), younger people have moved away for jobs, leaving a higher share of older residents remaining. Cities like Pittsburgh, PA or Cleveland, OH now have very large proportions of senior homeowners.
In Pittsburgh, for instance, about 22% of all households are “empty nest” households headed by older adults with extra space – one of the highest rates in the country. These regions could experience a significant housing turnover as the Silver Tsunami rolls on, since so many homes are owned by aging residents.
However, because population growth is slow or negative in some of these areas, a wave of Boomer-owned homes coming on the market might outpace local demand. This could lead to softer prices or more vacant housing in some Rust Belt communities if younger buyers don’t fill the gap.
Young, Growing Areas (Tech Hubs and Mountain States)
In booming job centers – think Austin, Seattle, Denver – and many Mountain West states, fewer homeowners are Boomers. These places have drawn younger workers (Millennials and Gen Z) for jobs, so the population of older long-time homeowners is smaller.
Nevada and Utah have the lowest share of Boomer owners (Utah’s is under 30%), and fast-growing metros like Austin and Las Vegas have relatively few empty-nest households (only around 10% of households). That means the Silver Tsunami will be less visible in these areas – there aren’t as many older owners to potentially sell off homes.
Housing shortages in these high-growth markets won’t be solved by Boomers moving out; instead, they continue to rely on new construction to meet demand.
Aging in Place: Most Boomers Are Not Moving
A key trend shaping the market today is that most Baby Boomers are not moving out of their homes as they age – at least not yet. Instead, the vast majority are “aging in place,” meaning they intend to stay in their current residences for as long as possible.
In a 2024 national survey by Redfin, 78% of older homeowners (ages 60+) said they plan to remain in their current home as they grow older. This was by far the most common plan among Boomers. The next most common plan – moving to a retirement community – was only about 20%. Very few indicated interest in options like moving in with family (around 10%) or entering assisted living in the near term.
Why Boomers Prefer to Stay Put
There are several reasons aging in place is so attractive to Boomers, and they are largely financial and personal:
Low Mortgage Rates Locked In
Many Boomers refinanced or bought homes when interest rates were at record lows. During 2020–2021, rates dropped under 3%, and a lot of owners secured ultra-low fixed mortgages. If they sold now, any new home purchase would likely come with a much higher interest rate around 6–7%. That financial hit makes downsizing less appealing.
Homes That Are Paid Off
As noted earlier, over half of Boomer homeowners have paid off their mortgages. This means living in their current home is very cheap – just taxes, insurance, and maintenance. Giving up a paid-off house to take on a new mortgage or pay high rent in senior housing is a tough sell. In the Redfin survey, 27% of Boomers who weren’t selling said the fact that their home was fully or mostly paid off was a major reason to stay.
High Home Prices (Can’t Afford to Move Nearby)
Home values have surged in the past decade. If Boomers sell, they might face steep prices for buying a different home. About 21% said they’re staying put because home prices are too high to justify a move. Essentially, even if their own home is large or has maintenance needs, finding a suitable replacement in the same area could be very expensive.
Emotional Attachment and Community Ties
Financial logic aside, many people simply love their homes and communities. More than half (51%) of Boomers who aren’t planning to move say it’s because they like their home and see no reason to leave. They may have lived in that house for decades, raised families there, and built deep community ties.
Only a small fraction of Boomers relocate each year – just 3.6% of people aged 65–79 moved homes in a recent year, which is far lower mobility than younger adults.
Technology Enabling Independent Living
It’s also increasingly feasible for Boomers to remain at home. Advances in medical care, home health services, and technology (like smart-home devices and medical alert systems) help seniors live independently longer. Many are retrofitting their houses with accessibility features (like grab bars or stair lifts) to make them safer for old age, rather than moving.
Low Housing Supply: Boomers Staying Put Tightens the Market
Because so many Baby Boomers are staying in their homes longer, fewer existing homes are being listed for sale, which makes housing supply tighter than it otherwise would be. In many communities, it’s common to see very low inventory of homes on the market, driving up competition and prices.
A Redfin analysis noted that more than half of Baby Boomers have lived in their current home for over 10 years. This means turnover is slow. In the past, a typical homeowner might have sold and moved after, say, 7 or 8 years. Now the tenure of homeownership has lengthened considerably, largely due to older owners not selling.
Nationwide housing inventory in 2023–2024 has been near record lows, which in turn pushes prices to record highs. By spring 2024, the typical monthly payment for a U.S. homebuyer reached an all-time high of around $2,800, due to the combo of high prices and higher interest rates. This creates an affordability crunch for buyers.
Impact on Family Homes and Younger Buyers
Younger generations feel the squeeze. Millennials in their 20s and 30s, many of whom are looking for starter homes or trading up as they have kids, are facing a market with limited options.
Boomers own a large portion of the family-sized homes that young families want – 28% of U.S. homes with three or more bedrooms are owned by “empty nest” Boomers, while millennials with children own only 14% of those homes. In other words, a lot of larger houses are effectively “locked” by older owners who aren’t selling, even though they may have more space than they need after kids move out.
Nearly 80% of Baby Boomers own the home they live in, and that homeownership rate is far higher than for millennials (only 55% of millennials own homes). Since so many Boomers are owners and most are choosing not to sell, it removes a huge chunk of houses from the active market.
Will There Be a Housing Flood Later?
Some observers originally predicted a massive “silver tsunami” of housing supply hitting the market as Boomers eventually downsize or pass away. The idea was that millions of homes would be released, perhaps easing the affordability crisis.
However, current data and forecasts suggest the influx will be gradual and not a cure-all for high prices. Zillow’s research found that there are indeed millions of “empty nest” homes potentially in play – about 20.9 million homes owned by older adults with extra rooms as of 2022.
In fact, the number of these potential Boomer-sourced homes exceeds the number of young families that need homes by a factor of 2.6. But there’s a big catch: those homes “don’t line up with the areas of greatest need.”
The Geographic Mismatch Problem
Most Boomer-owned homes are in places that are already relatively affordable – small towns, suburbs, and Rust Belt cities – not in the pricey coastal metros where housing is scarcest. So even as Boomers eventually list those homes, it won’t dramatically improve affordability in high-demand cities like San Francisco, Seattle, or Austin.
Zillow’s analysis bluntly concluded that a flood of Boomer-owned homes hitting the market will not solve the affordability challenges in the places that need relief the most.
Furthermore, many Boomers may never formally put their home on the open market – some will pass properties directly to family. Surveys show a lot of Boomers intend to leave their homes to their children or other heirs rather than selling to a stranger.
In one study, researchers found no sign of a sudden “exodus” of Boomers from homeownership yet, and the rate at which seniors exit homeownership has been lower than expected due to longer life spans and higher homeownership rates among today’s elders.
The Coming Wave: When Will It Arrive?
That said, the wave hasn’t crested yet. The oldest Boomers are now in their late 70s, and the big wave of people hitting age 80+ (when health forces more moves to assisted living or causes mortality) is still ahead. Industry analysts do anticipate a growing number of homes will change hands due to the Silver Tsunami in the 2030s:
- A Fannie Mae study projected that between 2026 and 2036, around 13 to 14 million older homeowners will exit homeownership (via selling or passing away), which is over 40% more than did so in the 2010s. That’s roughly 1.3 million homes yearly that could hit the market from older owners in that period.
- Another analysis (by Zillow and others) noted the Silver Tsunami will impact anywhere from one-fifth to one-third of all homes in certain metros by the 2030s.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts over 8 million homes will be made available by seniors in roughly the next ten years, rising toward 9 million as Boomers continue to age. About 1 million of those homes will come onto the market due to the passing of their owners (inheritances).
The Impact on Younger Generations
For younger generations like Millennials (now in their late 20s to early 40s) and Gen Z (just entering adulthood), the Silver Tsunami is a mixed blessing. In the near term, it has mostly presented challenges for housing affordability and access.
With Boomers owning so much of the housing stock and listing few homes for sale, younger buyers face fierce competition for the limited listings. This is one reason homeownership rates for young adults have lagged behind previous generations. About 79.6% of Baby Boomers own their home, but only 54.9% of Millennials do.
A 2024 Redfin report noted a few key reasons for this generational housing gap:
- Tight Housing Supply: Not enough homes for sale, partly because older Americans are hanging onto their homes rather than selling.
- High Costs: Home prices and mortgage rates have spiked, making it hard for young buyers without existing home equity to afford the monthly payments.
- Competition: When a decent, moderately priced home does hit the market, it often gets multiple offers. Younger buyers may be outbid by older buyers who can pay cash or larger down payments.
The Rise of Multigenerational Living
One outcome is that multigenerational living has increased. We see more families where adult children live with their Boomer parents into their late 20s, or vice versa – older parents move in with their grown children – to save money or provide care.
Some younger households are building “in-law suites” or accessory dwelling units to accommodate aging parents instead of the parents buying a separate home or going to a facility. While this can be positive for family bonding, it’s often an adaptation to housing affordability issues.
Future Benefits Through Inheritance
Looking a decade or two ahead, younger generations may stand to benefit from the Silver Tsunami through inheritance and increased housing supply. As mentioned, a massive wealth transfer is expected: Boomers will pass down homes and real estate equity to their children (who are mostly Gen X and Millennials).
Not all Millennials will inherit property – and those who do might have to share with siblings – but for many families, an inherited house or cash from its sale could be a game-changer for the younger generation’s own housing stability.
Also, by the mid-2030s and 2040s, more housing opportunities should open up for younger buyers as the Boomers eventually let go of their homes. For instance, by 2040, the youngest Boomers will be in their mid-70s and the oldest near 95. Inevitably, millions of homes will change hands.
Adapting the Housing Industry for an Aging Population
The real estate industry – from home builders to community developers to realtors – is already adapting to the needs and preferences of aging Boomers. Recognizing that seniors are now a gigantic market, there’s a strong trend toward senior-friendly home design and specialized housing.
Age-Friendly Home Design
Many Boomers want to stay in their houses, but those houses weren’t always designed for older adults. So builders and remodelers are focusing on features that allow “aging in place” safely.
This includes single-story floor plans (no stairs), or at least a primary bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor of two-story homes. It also means accessibility upgrades: wider doorways and hallways (to accommodate walkers or wheelchairs), no-step entrances, lever-style door handles (easier for arthritic hands), grab bars and seats in showers, slip-resistant flooring, and better lighting.
Yet as of a few years ago, only about 3.5% of U.S. homes had basic accessibility features like grab bars or wheelchair-width doors. This indicates a huge opportunity for retrofitting existing homes.
Right-Sizing and Downsized Homes
While most Boomers aren’t moving yet, those who do often look for smaller, easier-to-maintain homes. Home builders have noted that Baby Boomers are a big segment of the new-home market – around 30% of new-home purchasers in recent years were Boomers, often because they want a hassle-free, modern home for retirement.
They may be looking for features like a smaller yard (or no yard), energy efficiency, and homes wired for security systems so they can travel. Builders are creating “active adult” communities that are not full nursing homes, but neighborhoods of single-family or townhomes targeted to the 55+ crowd.
The Senior Housing Boom
The demand for dedicated senior housing – from independent living communities to assisted living and memory care facilities – is starting to surge. With the oldest Boomers turning 80 by 2025, the cohort of people needing some level of specialized senior housing will grow rapidly in the late 2020s and 2030s.
Investors and developers are responding by building more senior apartments and retirement villages. According to analysts, the demand for senior housing units could increase by 50% by 2040 to accommodate the age wave.
Looking Ahead: What the Future Holds
By 2030, about 1 in 5 Americans will be 65 or older. By 2040, the nation will have an unprecedented number of octogenarians (people in their 80s). Communities will face decisions on how to handle an older population.
Most likely, the housing market will go through a period of significant generational turnover in the next 10–20 years, but it might not feel dramatic on a year-to-year basis. Instead, gradually:
- More “for sale” signs will pop up in front of 1970s and 1980s-built houses as Boomers (or their heirs) decide to sell.
- Younger buyers could finally see a bit more inventory in certain segments, like mid-sized suburban homes, especially in areas that had a high share of older owners.
- Some regions might face a surplus of older homes. For instance, small towns with shrinking populations may end up with more vacant homes as Boomers pass on and fewer locals are there to buy.
- New housing models will emerge. We may see creative solutions like co-housing for seniors, more mixed-age communities, and tech-integrated homes for health monitoring.
In Conclusion
The aging of the Baby Boomers is an unprecedented event in U.S. housing history. Never before has such a large share of American homes been owned by a group entering old age all at once.
This “Silver Tsunami” is already being felt in the housing market – from tight inventory and rising home values to shifts in home design and senior living development. For now, many Boomers are content to stay where they are, creating a bottleneck for housing turnover.
But change is on the horizon as the generation gets older. Over the next 10 to 20 years, we can expect a considerable generational handoff of housing. How well that transition is managed – ensuring housing remains accessible and affordable for all ages – will be a key challenge and opportunity.
In the end, the Silver Tsunami is not a tidal wave that will crash and recede overnight; it’s a gradual tide that will transform the real estate shoreline, carving a new landscape for future generations of homeowners.
References
- Old Housing, New Needs: Are U.S. Homes Ready for an Aging Population? – U.S. Census Bureau
- The Silver Tsunami: Its Impact on the Housing Market – Virginia REALTORS®
- A ‘Silver Tsunami’ Won’t Solve Housing Affordability Challenges – Zillow Research
- More Than Three-Quarters of Baby Boomers Plan to Stay In Their Home As They Grow Older – Redfin News
- Redfin Reports Gen Z and Millennial Homeownership Rates Flatlined in 2024 as Housing Costs Soared – Redfin Corporation
- Baby Boomer-Dominant Housing Markets – Construction Coverage
- When Will Baby Boomers Relinquish Their Homes? – National Mortgage Professional
- Housing Insights: The Coming Exodus of Older Homeowners – Fannie Mae
- How to Design Homes for Today’s Aging Population – National Association of Home Builders
- Baby Boomers Regain Top Spot as Largest Share of Home Buyers – National Association of REALTORS®
