Generational Landscape in Oregon’s Housing Market
Oregon’s housing market has been shaped by distinct generational forces. Generation X – roughly those born 1965-1980 – entered the 2010s still recovering from the late-2000s housing crash, but by the 2020s they’ve hit their prime homebuying years alongside an even larger wave of Millennials.
Oregon’s population skews slightly older than the nation (median age 40.3 vs 38.9), with an “extra large” Baby Boomer cohort and a big Millennial cohort, while Gen X is comparatively smaller.
Nationally, older Americans now dominate homeownership: over-55s own 54% of U.S. homes, up from 44% in 2008, while the share owned by ages 35–54 (mostly Gen X) fell from 42% to 34%.
In Oregon, Baby Boomers still account for about 38.6% of homeowners statewide, reflecting the state’s older tilt. Even so, Gen X households have high ownership rates as many bought homes in the past decade – around 72% of Gen X nationwide own their homes, close to Boomers’ 79%.
But the composition of buyers has been shifting: in 2024 Millennials emerged as the largest cohort of homebuyers (38% of buyers), surpassing Gen X (24%). This changing generational mix sets the stage for Oregon’s evolving homebuying trends.
2010–2019: Recovery, Rising Prices, and Urban Growth
The 2010s were largely a recovery era for housing. Gen X bore the brunt of the 2008 housing crash – they saw the steepest drops in home equity and many were underwater on mortgages in 2010.
However, this generation proved resilient. By the mid-to-late 2010s, Gen X homeowners had doubled their home equity from post-crash lows, fully regaining lost wealth.
A Pew Research analysis even found Gen X to be the only generation that had recovered its Great Recession wealth by the end of the decade.
With finances stabilizing, many Gen Xers were ready to move up from starter homes or buy their first Oregon properties as the economy improved. Home prices in Oregon climbed steadily through the 2010s, especially in urban centers.
Portland and other job hubs saw significant appreciation in home values throughout 2012–2019, fueled by strong population growth and limited supply.
State data shows that between 2015 and 2019, Oregon’s population grew three times faster than its housing supply (three new residents per new housing unit) – double the national rate of growth, which worsened an existing housing shortage.
By the end of the decade the statewide homeownership rate hit about 63.8%, the highest since the mid-2000s, but buying a home had become markedly more expensive.
For example, in 2015 the median sale price in the Portland metro area was about $315,600, compared to just $143,500 in rural Eastern Oregon, highlighting a huge urban-rural price gap even before the 2020s.
Across the state, low interest rates (generally 4–5% in the late 2010s) and rising incomes helped many Gen X buyers, but affordability was already an issue for younger and lower-income households.
Urban Concentration Patterns
Gen X buyers during the 2010s often concentrated in cities and suburbs where the jobs were. Oregon’s rural communities skew heavily toward older residents (many Baby Boomer retirees), while urban areas like Portland have a surplus of working-age adults.
As a result, much of Gen X’s homebuying in the 2010–2019 period happened in metropolitan areas – from Portland’s close-in neighborhoods to fast-growing suburbs of the Willamette Valley.
Gen X (in between those groups) had a relatively smaller presence in rural Oregon during the 2010s, as many had migrated to cities earlier in their careers.
Nonetheless, some desirable smaller markets did attract mid-career buyers in the late 2010s – Bend, for instance, saw an influx of Gen X professionals drawn by its quality of life.
2020–2025: Pandemic Boom, Remote Work, and a Cooling Market
The early 2020s brought whiplash to Oregon’s housing market. Generation X entered this period as established homeowners or repeat buyers – and many were well-positioned to take advantage of unprecedented conditions.
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near 0%, translating into record-low 30-year mortgage rates around 3%.
This spurred a homebuying frenzy nationwide and in Oregon. Pent-up demand collided with rock-bottom financing costs and a desire for more space during lockdowns.
Oregon’s median home prices, which briefly paused in spring 2020, surged by over $68,000 between May and September 2020 – a jump that normally would take 3½ years.
It was a seller’s market bonanza: bidding wars erupted, inventory vanished, and even far-flung properties sold fast.
Gen X in the Pandemic Housing Boom
Gen X buyers played a notable role in this pandemic-era boom. Many in this cohort were in their 40s and early 50s, often with accumulated home equity and stable careers, allowing them to trade up or invest in second homes.
Some took advantage of remote work to relocate from high-priced cities to more affordable or spacious areas.
Across Oregon – from big cities to small towns – locals strained under an increasingly unaffordable market, and first-time buyers began looking outside expensive cities, causing suburbs and rural towns to see shrinking housing stock and rising prices themselves.
A portion of Gen X joined this urban exodus. For example, the popular outdoor paradise of Bend saw 2,858 Gen X transplants in 2022 alone, one of the highest such influxes in the nation, mostly from within Oregon.
Even lifelong urbanites found smaller markets appealing when city life shut down – and Gen Xers with the means often led the way in purchasing homes in Oregon’s scenic areas (or investment properties there).
The Interest Rate Shock
Yet the same frenzy that benefited some sellers and move-up buyers also worsened the affordability crunch. By late 2021, Oregon home values were at record highs, but ultra-low interest rates kept monthly payments somewhat in check for buyers who could secure a home.
In fact, 2021 saw a brief window of improved affordability: even though prices were rising, a 3% mortgage meant a typical Oregon family needed about $107,500 income to afford the median house (~$542,000) – roughly 40% of families met that threshold.
But this respite was short-lived. In 2022, inflation’s surge prompted the Fed to aggressively hike rates. Mortgage rates jumped from ~3% at the start of 2022 to over 5% by mid-year, and kept climbing.
By 2023, average 30-year rates hovered around 6.8%.
The effect on Oregon’s housing market was dramatic: the same family that needed a $107k income to buy a median home in 2021 would need about $141k by 2023 for a similar home, due to higher rates – pricing out tens of thousands of would-be buyers.
Market Cooling and Stagnation
Statewide, home sales volumes plunged when rates spiked. In Portland, home sales by late 2022 were down ~40% year-over-year, and new listings fell 25% as many owners hesitated to trade out of their ultra-low mortgages.
Inventory in some markets began to tick up, but largely because houses sat unsold longer. By November 2022, only 19% of Portland metro households could afford the mortgage on a median-priced home, down from 38% at the start of that year.
The story was similar in other regions: Salem saw its affordability drop from 38% of households at the start of 2022 to 22% by late 2022; Bend plunged from 23% to just 14% of local households able to buy the median home.
“We have the worst affordability,” Josh Lehner remarked in mid-2023. “Low vacancies and high prices is indicative of a housing shortage…that’s clearly what we’ve been in for a while now.”
By 2023 and early 2024, Oregon’s housing market reached a stalemate of sorts. Prices in many areas plateaued or saw slight declines from their peak, but rising interest costs meant buying remained difficult.
A HUD analysis of Eugene’s market showed that in 2023 home sales dropped 20% compared to the previous year, even as prices leveled off (+<1% year-over-year). Similar drops were reported in other Oregon cities.
Gen X homeowners, many of whom locked in 3% loans, largely stayed put unless life circumstances forced a move – a dynamic seen across the U.S. as owners cling to their advantageous rates.
Urban vs. Rural: Changing Preferences and Price Divergence
One of the clearest trendlines for Oregon’s Gen X homebuyers has been a shift in where they purchase – the perennial urban vs. rural (or suburban) question.
In the 2010s, the pattern was fairly straightforward: Gen X buyers largely stayed in metro areas for jobs, with suburbs offering larger homes for those starting families.
Rural Oregon – apart from a few hotspots – saw comparatively fewer Gen X buyers, as many rural counties experienced either stagnation or an influx of retirees rather than mid-career professionals.
Housing was generally more affordable in rural Oregon – roughly 20% better affordability than in urban areas on average, as lower incomes were more than offset by even lower home prices.
In 2015, for instance, the median home in Portland ($316K) cost nearly double the median in Eastern Oregon ($143K). This urban-rural price gap meant those Gen Xers who did buy in rural towns could get far more house for the money – though often with trade-offs in employment and amenities.
The Pandemic’s Geographic Impact
During 2020-2022, that calculus began to change. Remote work and pandemic-driven lifestyle shifts enabled more higher-earning buyers (including many Gen Xers) to consider rural or small-town living, effectively bringing big-city buying power into smaller markets.
The result was a surge in prices and competition in places that had long been sleepy. Oregon’s “Zoom towns” – from Bend to Hood River to coastal communities – experienced unprecedented demand.
Local brokers in these areas reported waves of new buyers from Portland, Seattle, and California, many in their 40s and 50s, snapping up properties.
For Gen X, often at the peak of their earning years, this period offered a chance to fulfill dreams of country living or owning acreage – if they sold a high-priced city home or had cash on hand. Some even bought second homes in resort areas as investments or future retirement spots.
The Eroding Rural Affordability Advantage
However, this influx also meant that rural Oregon was no longer the affordable refuge it once was. Longtime residents in places like Bend, Redmond, or Astoria suddenly found themselves priced out as well-heeled newcomers (Gen X and Boomers alike) bid up homes.
As one analysis noted, many scenic rural counties – such as Oregon’s coastline and high desert – face housing affordability challenges on par with major metros, partly because outside buyers drive prices beyond local wage levels.
By 2023, the urban-rural dynamic had somewhat flipped from a decade prior. Many urban markets cooled first under high interest rates, while certain rural markets continued to see interest due to limited inventory and ongoing demographic appeal.
That said, the overall trend by 2024 is a moderation of the pandemic migration phenomenon; some remote workers returned to offices or put plans on hold as the economy shifted.
Gen X homebuyers today are therefore making very calculated decisions: those with flexibility are still opting for the quieter regions of Oregon, while others remain in cities out of necessity or preference.
The net effect is that Oregon’s suburbs and smaller cities have grown in popularity relative to Portland. Even as Portland’s market slowed, areas like Central Oregon remained attractive – though painfully pricey.
Bend, for example, now consistently ranks among the least affordable small cities in Oregon (only ~14% of households can afford the median home), a stark change from a decade ago when it was a budget-friendly alternative to Portland.
The Affordability Squeeze and What’s Next
Through both periods – the 2010s and the 2020s – one constant theme has been affordability. In the late 2010s, despite economic growth, Oregon’s housing production lagged demand.
The state entered the 2020s with a deficit of housing units (especially affordable units), and the pandemic housing frenzy only exacerbated the problem.
Oregon Housing and Community Services estimates the state is tens of thousands of units short of what’s needed to adequately house its population, particularly at lower income levels.
By 2022, more than 50% of Oregon renters were cost-burdened, and the state had one of the nation’s lowest supplies of affordable rentals – pressures that also filter into the starter home market.
Some younger buyers (often Millennials) are even teaming up with friends to buy houses together as co-owners, as OPB profiled in Portland.
Gen X, generally older and more likely to have equity or savings, hasn’t had to resort to roommate purchases as often, but they are certainly not immune to the affordability squeeze – especially those who delayed buying until the 2020s or who face relocating to a much pricier market.
Looking Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
Looking ahead, Oregon’s Gen X homebuyers stand at a crossroads of opportunity and challenge. On the one hand, many in this generation have benefited from rising home equity (some even cashing out or downsizing profitably), and the flexibility to choose the quality of life over proximity to a downtown office is higher than ever.
On the other hand, the combination of high prices, high interest rates, and limited inventory is testing even well-established buyers.
Policymakers are eyeing solutions – from zoning reforms to encourage more home construction, to down payment assistance for middle-income buyers.
In 2022, even as home prices hit new highs, record-low 3% interest rates actually improved affordability slightly, allowing some relief. Conversely, by 2023, record-high post-pandemic rates made Oregon housing the least affordable it had been in decades.
This wild swing illustrates how sensitive the market is. “Improvements will come,” Lehner’s office predicted, noting that a mix of lower rates, rising incomes, and cooling prices could bring affordability back toward historical norms.
Indeed, by mid-2024 mortgage rates had ticked down from their peak, and Oregon’s home price growth had leveled off, potentially drawing some Gen X move-up buyers off the sidelines.
Generational Housing Transitions
Comparisons with other generations provide further context. Baby Boomers, many now in their 60s and 70s, have started to downsize or relocate, which will gradually free up some inventory – though many Boomers in Oregon are aging in place, so the big turnover is likely still to come late in the decade.
Millennials, now in their late 20s to early 40s, have become the engine of first-time home demand, often competing for the same modest suburban houses that Gen X buyers might be selling as they upgrade.
Nationally, Millennials now make up the largest share of home purchase activity (about 37–38%) while Gen X is around 24% and Boomers about 32%. Oregon likely mirrors this trend, as the large Millennial population in Portland and other cities hustles to buy despite the hurdles.
That puts Gen X in something of a sweet spot: generally already on the property ladder, but not yet looking to exit homeownership. Their challenge is less about whether to own a home at all (as it is for many Millennials), and more about where and how to afford the next chapter – be it a bigger house, a second home, or a move to a preferred community.
For Oregon’s Gen X, this reality has defined both the past and present of their homebuying journey. In the 2010s, they rode the recovery and captured rising equity in an urban-centric market. In the 2020s, they’ve faced a rollercoaster of a market that upended some assumptions – urban vs. rural preferences, what “affordable” means, and how to compete with other generations in the hunt for a home.
The story of Oregon’s housing over the last 15 years is, in many ways, a story of resilience and adaptation by Gen X buyers. They have weathered a crash, seized opportunities during a boom, and are now carefully calibrating their next moves in an uncertain environment.
Whether in Portland’s city center or the high desert of Bend, Gen X homebuyers continue to carve out their piece of the Oregon Dream – albeit with plenty of challenges still ahead.
References:
- Oregon Office of Economic Analysis – population & housing demographic report
- Oregon Housing and Community Services – State of the State’s Housing Report (2023)
- U.S. Census Bureau & HUD data – homeownership rates and housing market analyses
- Huduser.gov – Comprehensive House Market Analysis
- National Association of Realtors – Generational trends reports
- Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB) – housing affordability news coverage
- Local Oregon media (KTVZ Bend)
- OPB.org – Oregon has an extreme housing shortage – here’s what could be done
